View Single Post
Old 17-02-2005, 18:46   #10 (permalink)
psperos
level 3
 
psperos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 407
Rep Power: 0
psperos is an unknown quantity at this point
Re: End of dollar's latest rally. 10 Feb 2005

Quote:
Originally Posted by 20pipsaday

If you watch the yield curves on tnotes, you will notice that right now the market seems to be pricing in a coming recession.... a couple more rate hikes and we will be inverted.
This causes extreme reason to be cautious. The market is speculating a recession that has not happened yet. Masses are never correct at predicting the future, and I’m not saying greenspan is... all this leaves is more room for the market to be extremely wrong.. I would not want to be short the dollar if this bias were to ever shift.

The more the market speculates a recession and pushes long term yields down, the less likely the US will have a recession based on the rate impact that market is actually forcing on it.
psperos is offline   Reply With Quote