[neutron]

I would like to share some of my own thoughts on the thread title that characterise the market reaction in the mid 2000's.

In respect to credibility, I should disclose I am relatively inexperienced and don't have too many runs on the board.

=> Currently the play seems to be to wait at least 15-30 minutes after the data release before the direction can be confirmed.

=> The fundamental analysis of economists beforehand is not important, as a large move can take place, then reverse within 2 trading days to show the real short-term direction.

=> The two likely outcomes after the data release is; a) spike sharply, small retrace, followed by further gains in initial direction. b) spike sharply, small retrace, threaten to continue in intial direction, followed by sharp reversal beyond NFP pre-release price.

=> Stop losses with reversals around the pre-release price, set at least 15mins after the data release seem to have a high probability of success.

=> The last 30 minutes of trading in Lihir Gold (ASX:LHG) on a Friday afternoon is an useful indicator for the final direction of GOLD in Friday Trading.

=> Straddles and other such strategies around the release of the data is akin to player poker against a stacked deck.


I hope some of the more experienced traders on this board can give some of their thoughts...