I'm too new to give detailed advice, but I'm a long time economics student and this is what I've seen and done.
After reading a futures/
fx/comd'ty magazine, and noticing that each article seemingly contradicted the next one, I just went back to my favorite econ text by Gwartney, Stroup and Sobel. Excellent text. Anyway, I reread the section on currency, made some mental notes and now I'm trying to decipher which affects are stronger and why.
Domestic influences seem to push one direction, foreign influences seem to push the other, . . there's a lot to learn but I don't think it's rocket science. I think it's my inordinate passion for economics that made
Fx so attractive to me in the first place.