[tommyfx]

HI trader ABC,

I have gone through times when i felt the market was random and lost all hope that trading was a skill you could build up. But i have learnt that the markets ARE beatable i consistently have profitable trades and so do many people, you don't see major companies hedging their yearly import costs on the roulette wheel, and the reason being the roulette wheel IS totally random, 50 reds in a row doesn't mean the next number is any likely to be a black etc etc But financial markets do have certain factors that mean they are predictable. MArket price is a result of supply and demand, obviously the more people demand a currency the higher the price will go, to move the forex market requires HUGE amounts of money, million pound positions are nothing to this market, so for the the EUR to make the gains it did against the dollar in the year or so leading up to about April required a lot of people to make a judgement on the value of EUR/USD and simultaneously agree that the EURO was undervalued, this isn't an action of a random market.

I would add, however, the smaller the time frame you are trading off the the more "random" elements of supply and demand creep in. The shorter time frame traders are in a constant battle over supply and demand, when you have traders looking for 10-20 pips per trde, and professional institutions market making looking to take 1-2 pips at a time, it is unlikely you will have any sustained market momentum to create a predictable trend.

I suggest bringing up an hourly chart or even a daily chart and you will see how the market is nearly always in a state of a majority agreeing the market is over valued or undervalued and my advice is agree with them.

Hope this gives you a bit of faith, and if i am wrong and the markets are just random movements resulting in people randomly entering trades then who am i to argue? I am making lots of money so must be doing something right.

Tom