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Old 27-06-2005, 04:46   #7
tommyfx
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Re: Are currency markets random?

slope30,

I have heard of J-charts although i don't have "extensive use of them", in fact my only contact i've had with them is general research into trading.
They do work partly on the theory that the markets have random elements (when the herd mentality forces people to aggressively buy/sell a price and greed and fear take away the hunt for fair value making price movement impossible to predict) this is my interpretation of the following extract from a trading encyclopedia on J-charts,

"Price Forecasting
J-Chart treats markets as energetic systems, thereby giving us a new way of looking at them. It is designed to help the trader decide when markets are in equilibrium and when they are not. The closer the price action comes to filling a perfect isosceles triangle in a given period (turned on its end), the more it is in equilibrium.

If markets were efficient, they would also be logical. But as any trader knows, markets are neither totally efficient nor totally logical. The reason is simple: markets are prone to the herd mentality. Herds rarely move efficiently, and they are certainly not driven by rational logic. They are more likely to vacillate between periods of greed (when prices are driven up in the rush as people buy not wanting to miss out) and periods of fear (when people realize they got carried away)."

Looking for equilibrium after periods of greed or fear? (an aspect of supply and demand, which wouldn't be present in a random market, surely?) Seems to me this is a way of finding levels when the market is overbought or oversold, which again is a concept a random market wouldn't understand.

As for your second question, what system am i using, it is a trend following system, on an hourly chart, its really very simple, based around moving averages, pull up an hourly chart and find an indicator/s settings that allow you to enter a trade "near" the begining and exit "near" the end of a trend and you will do just fine, too many people become obsessed with predicting the market and catching every pip a trend has to offer. From my experience getting 50% of a trend 90% of the time is far better that getting 100% of the trend 10% of the time.

Good luck,

Tom
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