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RealFX · 10-07-2005, 17:42

Is what a report I read from the reserve bank of Australia says Forex speculators take from the market. The report also said that speculators were profitable in 60% of weeks they traded. The author argues that we are paid a risk premium for carrying the risks in this market and/or that we can accurately predict currency movements. Short term movements, however, were not predictable according to veteran traders he surveyed.

After reading this, I wondered more and more about zero-sum and the claim 95% of people loose. That phrase always reminded me of starting a buisness(90% fail, yet the U.S. has millions of businesses).

So, if new money is pumped into the markets, then speculators take home should grow and when the market shrinks, we won't have as massive a pool. But since the Forex is expanding, then how can it be zero-sum?

10-07-2005, 17:42	#1
RealFX level 1 Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 65 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0 Rep Power: 0	10 Million per Week Is what a report I read from the reserve bank of Australia says Forex speculators take from the market. The report also said that speculators were profitable in 60% of weeks they traded. The author argues that we are paid a risk premium for carrying the risks in this market and/or that we can accurately predict currency movements. Short term movements, however, were not predictable according to veteran traders he surveyed. After reading this, I wondered more and more about zero-sum and the claim 95% of people loose. That phrase always reminded me of starting a buisness(90% fail, yet the U.S. has millions of businesses). So, if new money is pumped into the markets, then speculators take home should grow and when the market shrinks, we won't have as massive a pool. But since the Forex is expanding, then how can it be zero-sum?