Again something that I've posted at Iris's post and I'd like to comment more than it's possible or appropriate at his thread.
and here it is accompanied with the addition:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by idejan Originally Posted by Iris
Hello Noor and Everyone....... ... The Markets Price expectation will always revert back to the Fundamental of Time...today's a good example ...
__________ Yes I agree, it will eventualy. But the thing is, that while forecasting markets gives a room and comfort of being wrong until it does (price reverts), trading markets doesn't. If ones stops are being hit every day for a time period of a day(s), week(s), month(s), chances of one being drawndown, grows with his/hers continuing "expectation" that the Price will at some point "revert back to the Fundamentals of Time". So, it could always prove that ones anticipation should revert back to the Fundamentals of Time, rather than waiting the Price to do that. Especialy if Time and Price are corelated and in a some kind of an agreement
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Originally Posted by Iris
Time has Curvo-Linear Wave properties...and they do repeat...Price is a mathmatical numeric that exists within and must conform to the structure of Time because they operate within the same constants and variables
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than it could be that they never disagree (deverge), but it's our expectations about the Fundamentals, that are in a disagreement (both with time and price).
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Originally Posted by Iris ... In regards to disparities between them or "Fog" the Markets Price expectation will always revert back to the Fundamentals of Time calculated thru the Technical of Price...for that is how a Trend continues or reverses course to its true value...
_______________ And to the point. Markets Price expectation will never revert back to the Fundamentals of Time, since the PRICE is THE EXPECTATION(S). It is the Agregate Expectation and Agreement of the MASS (even those not trading, since their expectations influence Fundamentals etc.) Market Price expectations, the PRICE, will never revert back to the "Fundamentals of Time", since it is ahead of them in time. Ultimately it is the Fundamentals that will at some point of time show up to reflect the results of the ACCUMULATED EXPECTATIONS or "Social Tendencies - Behevior". As for the
______________ Originally Posted by Iris
...today's a good example ...
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The price before the announcement was trading in a range from 1.2449 to 1.2485 (36 pips) and just before the announcement was somewhere @ about 1.2465 HIGH. In the next 30 minutes, it fell down to 1.2381 LOW (84 pips) to get to 1.2445 (64 PIPs or 76% of previous move) in the next 5 and a half hours. Previous trading day low was around 1.2375 and high at 1.2475 (100 Pips) with a closing just a few pips below the previous high. The Average day move for EURUSD I believe is to be 110-120 PIPs.
Sorry, I could not give a significance to something that insignificant as friday's "Markets Price expectation reverting back to the Fundamental of Time".
I've started an explanation of the terms Fundamentals and Expectations here, since they are the key in this post (and many others), but decided to move it to my post, for one to keep this post simple (if that was possible at all  ) and because of the possible discusion on the subject, since this thread is not a discussion one.
You can find it Charting & Technical Analyst under My Elliot Waves Charts
Best to all,
ID
Important NOTE: I'm not following Iris calls and I don't imply this to his calls, even that it just seem to me he was wrong on EURUSD for same time. I don't have a record of that and it is not the point here to prove that he is wrong. This is just my humble opinion and a different view on some of the Market essentials. |
Here is that part on The terms
Fundamentals and
Expectations:
I'm geting very anoyed with the implied meaning to the "Fundamentals" as being THE FUNDAMENTALS. Economic indicators are just a numeric representation (and not accurate but more of a trial representations) to RESULTS in the ECONOMY which it self is a one of the pilars of the society, since trough the "actions" of man in the "economy" he can fulfill one of it's FUNDAMENTAL NEEDS (the need for material necessities - food, cloths etc for himself and his family - or
Economic security and safety). So the indicators are not FUNDAMENTALS.
As for the EXPECTATIONS, I've used them just because of the relation to the previous posts, and they are in fact (dreams, hopes, desires etc.)
One have NEEDS, then one Dreams, Hopes, Desire about fulfiling those NEEDS. These are the essence of the MOTIVATION. However the inate capacity
to do or
be (ABILITY) determines if the one will take some ACTION to fullfill his DREAMS, HOPES (explanation:
while dreams are unlimited expectaions full of "what ifs", Hopes require a "desired expectation" or the expectation that something will happen if nothing goes wrong) and DESIRES (explanation:
the awarenes that something better exists). It is the convergence/divergence of the DREAMS, HOPES, DESIRES vs ABILITY that creates HAPPINES or FRUSTRATIONS.
The simple fact is that all animals including humans, primal NEED is to SURVIVE, to continue to live. To do that they need to take actions. Trading Markets is one of the ACTIONS people trade to profit in money, to be able to fulfill their Dreams, Hopes, Desires - related to their NEEDS. It is how GREED could manifest it self in the trading. On the other side is the FEAR (of loss). It is a manifestation of the FEAR concerning ones
Economic security and safety, connected with the PRIMAL INSTICT to SURVIVE (continue to live, preserve life) and it is why the FEAR is so sincere and strong emotion.
NOTE: I'm not a psychologist.
