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Originally Posted by idejan ...
USDCAD
I will follow for a while this USDCAD just for example.
I've missed the opportunity to take profit @ 1.1930/25 when it was showing signals of finishing larger wave down, but I was "expecting" 30more pips. 
So at this point I gave back more than 30 pips, but since I don't expect this correction to go above 1.198/1.2 I'll leave my position open targeteting 1.17 and below.
ID |
Well, obviously I've wasted a perfectly good trade of 100 PIPS
"expecting" 30 more pips and then again expecting that corection will not go above 1.198
Guess there were much more "expectations" that it will.
And when this is a perfect example of a wasted trade, and acctualy a LOSS of 110 PIPS, it also shows that forecasting and playing forecasts is different game. While I was perfectly objective at determine levels and direction before I've entered the trade, I somehow was carried away as trade progressed.
But then again I like giving room to position to develop and progress. Which would have been OK if I entered the trade much earlier when I've first noticed the open door.
Here I'm am were I started and my bias is still down. However with such a deeper corection as this was, and the fact that the price just slightly break below .786 fibonacci @ 1.1932 (26 nov 04 low @ 1.1715 to 1.2734 High 16 may 05), I'll lower my stops just above the invalidation @ 1.2065 S/L @ 1.2075
Break above 1.2065 would mean we could see a consolidation from Dec 2004 to continue in the next 3 - 5 months.
But even with such a scenario, it is most probably to expect a break below 1.19 to 1.1850/1800, before any move North to 1.26/28/30.
Break below 1.1715 means a much deeper trend down.
ID