Quote:
|
Originally Posted by phreak
Euro has been going North for quite a while completely disregarding positive dollar data for some mysterious reasons. Strangely, market still waits before buying Euro till strong US data is actually released just to completely ignore it and buy Euro one more time. Why wait? If fundamentals don't matter anymore, why care about news releases? It goes beyond any common sense and looks like mass mental disorder when traders simply buy Euro following some crazy idea rather than objective reality. What's going on? I personally don't remember cases when much higher than expected payrolls and interest rate increase caused dollar to lose value. Or we are dealing with some unprecedented conspiracy that is able to influence huge worldwide forex market? Any answers?
|
Actually,
fundamentals do matter. Perhaps you should coorelate the recent rise in oil prices above $60. This is a very key level and has been touted on bloomberg for some time.
Consequently, this weeks rise in the dollar highly coorelates to the slight fall in oil and inflation reports form both sides of the Atlantic ocean. Inclusively the US treasury demand has been higher as seen in the recent fall in Yield on a 30 year and 10 year daily chart.
If these fundamentals persist into next week we are looking at another test of 1.20 on eurodollar. If treasury demand lets up and we have a slight hick-up in oil or gold then we are probably looking at 1.23 for the short term.
Open your eyes,..open your ears,..and put your finger on the pulse of the market.
Watch the indices. (bonds,oil,gold)They tell the story before it unfolds.
Regards
PSY