Probability of shift in the current bullish Dollar sentiment has shrunken.
Now with JPY above 115 EUR about to retest 1.1900 will shortly give the answer for the weeks to come.
I'm now neutral while I've run out on confidence in JPY in short term I'm still not convinced in this stronger dollar scenario yet.
Let see EUR first.
EUR
is about to retest first 1.1912 probably 1.1900 but break below that would open min to 1.1864 which in my opinion could go down even on the first attempt the p would then slide most probably to 1.1755/35.
But in case this scenario proves to be true then I would say that EURUSD will go deeper down to at least 1.1637 but most probably to area of 1.1316<>1.1183<>1.1006. It could however extend further down to 1.0380<>1.0010 but less probably.
What bothers me about this scenario is the fact that the move 5 Jul 2005 to sept high (circled on the weekly chart detail) is to small to be considered as finished second leg however technically it qualifies for wave x of double zigzag.
The other probability that I still hold view of is that this whole development ( 5 Jul 2005) is a flat which would prove true if the 1.1900<>1.1864 holds. In such case a 5 wave pattern should follow to at least 1.27 levels but more probably further above.
I should publish this faster before it becomes irrelevant since the EUR slided down more than 60 pips the time I started writing this (arround 1.1985).
ID