Quote:
|
Originally Posted by tommyfx
NO indicator will tell you what people are likely to do at that particular time, indicators give you a picture of what has happened/is happening, its down to you to collect this information and "anticipate" the move.
|
Here is the problem. We don't know what people will do (maybe a person needs to study Astrology or divination?
). Action of some people may make all the stuff technicals obsolete... Again, I am not interested in gambling, but working, and this doesn't sit well with me.
Quote:
Maybe i missed your point, if you are saying tourist agencies and banks in terms of selling you Euro's for your holiday in Italy
|
I guess I wasn't clear. What I am trying to say is how can a triangle or any/most other technical figures have any relevance to what is happening in the real world (currencies changing hands, banks changing money, tourists organizations exchanging currency, pension and other funds, etc).
Quote:
"Market fixing isn't unfair, to the banks..."
Firstly by fixing i mean stopping a price falling below a certain level by exerting buying demand into the market,
|
Why do the large banks (I am talking about largest and most influential Consortium of Banks) need to benefit us? They have their own (and national) interests first. What stops banks from refusing to put quotes below X.XXXX ? Forex isn't regulated as much as the Stock market.
Quote:
not fixing as in "rigging" (forex isnt a roulette wheel you can stick a magnet under),
|
Currency rates are too important for us, imbeciles (in economic sense), to be allowed to be moved where we want. Banks follow big boyz, not us.
Quote:
if a country started "rigging" forex or hiding economic releases they will very soon find themselfs a third world country because nobody will touch their currency, their currency might as well be coffee beans for all it will be worth, you think anyone wants to buy a unfairly manipulated currency?
|
Wait a second! How many times were data released revised? A lot. Plus do you really trust the gov't to release its info 100% complete and 100% true?
Eatin' ain't cheating. Remember the surplus during Clinton Administration?
All the surplus wasn't there. 203.2 billion of dollars (surplus?) revised to 89.8 billion deficit... Wouldn't surprise me....
Quote:
If banks started not showing us lower prices even though there was selling pressure there to force it lower, FOREX would be a joke, worthless, banks wouldnt need to trade any money in the markets they would just keep it where they want, the whole FOREX system would be abandoned, and the financial world would fall into chaos. If the bank was found out it would face massive effects, nobody would ever trade with it again, you could be looking at a bank going out of business!! The effects are too huge to imagine.
|
Maybe this is what happens. When most, lets say 90% of the traders bought at 1.2000 (what the banks sold), what prevents banks from moving the quotes down??!! (especially if there is a short term need for quotes to be lowered?). How can you PROVE to the agencies (who could've been bought long ago) that the market is fixed?
Quote:
The FX rates you see come from multiple banks, which are all in competition with each other, if one bank fixed prices the others would quickly blow the whistle on them, it would be so obvious, the list of reasons of how obsured price fixing in the forex market is endless. Trust me, the FX markets are NOT fixed!
|
Why do the major banks (and brokers) have rates that are way too similiar to each other??? DO all the people in different brokerage house every second
do exactly the same trades? 24/5???? Can you imagine the possible arbitrage if banks showed vastly different rates? What keeps their rates similiar (perhaps the same if you take the broker spreads/cuts) ?
Quote:
i was making the point you cant backtest a strategy that compensates for market experience, learning when to stand aside expecting a possible break of a support, detecting what the mood of the market is because your lagging indicators having caught up yet. YOu cant backtest a system effectively because it is the human element that makes a trader a good trader. You could programme a robot to drive a car, but what any driver knows there are so many outside factors you have to look out for, would you want to drive in that car?
|
I agree 100%.
Quote:
|
what actually drives them, the market players drive the market which effect indicators.
|
It seems that today with computer tech it all points that OUR orders do not drive. Not in the FX... Think about it, if you organized a game, who would you make win (yourself, the house) or your clients?