"Quote:
Originally Posted by tommyfx
NO indicator will tell you what people are likely to do at that particular time, indicators give you a picture of what has happened/is happening, its down to you to collect this information and "anticipate" the move.
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Here is the problem. We don't know what people will do (maybe a person needs to study Astrology or divination?
). Action of some people may make all the stuff technicals obsolete... Again, I am not interested in gambling, but working, and this doesn't sit well with me."
Ok then, assume you set up a car lot, and buy a load of cars to sell, can you guarantee you will sell them for a profit?
Or you go into property development, do you KNOW what the housing market will do in a 18 months?
Of course not, business is a gamble, we just use our skill and judgement to make accurate predictions. Making these accurate predictions is work, but there will always be an element of gamble, if you dont like risk try working as a bus driver or postman, most of us were initially drawn to trading because of the gains you can make, those gains come at a price, risk, but it isnt a gamble because there isnt an edge, (ok the broker has a spread) but that isnt a house edge as such, the markets can be traded profitably/cracked/however you want to put it, a casino cant.
" I guess I wasn't clear. What I am trying to say is how can a triangle or any/most other technical figures have any relevance to what is happening in the real world (currencies changing hands, banks changing money, tourists organizations exchanging currency, pension and other funds, etc)."
Because they look at the same charts as we do and make decisions on that. To make my point clearer we will take someone that isnt speculating, an exporter for example. In order to offset their costs they need to hedge by buying cheap euro's, what is the cheapest they can get the price, in the next few days? It would be wise to say at the bottom of the current trading range, so at the nearest support level there will now be a massive buy order from an exporter, but they dont do it in one go, that would be risky, they may buy 100 million Euros at support level X, price drifts up for a few hours, then comes down gain to X, they execute the next part of their order and they keep doing this. This is what exporters do, banks do, hedge funds do, prop traders do and therefore what we must do.
Try to remember, NOBODY is bigger than FX, they look at the market as we do and make their decisions as we do, the only difference is their orders have an effect on the market, so we must pay even more attention to doing what we do.
"Quote:
"Market fixing isn't unfair, to the banks..."
Firstly by fixing i mean stopping a price falling below a certain level by exerting buying demand into the market,
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Why do the large banks (I am talking about largest and most influential Consortium of Banks) need to benefit us? They have their own (and national) interests first. What stops banks from refusing to put quotes below X.XXXX ? Forex isn't regulated as much as the Stock market. "
Banks make money from us trading through them, (remember spreads) if there was selling demand it would be in their interest to keep quoting prices to sell at and vice versa, by not showing us quotes they are turning away business. Not to mention all the legal issues i and total impossibilities of this happening i stated in my last reply. The banks do stop currencies from falling by buying rather than just not showing lower prices for so many other reason, i dont mean to sound patronising but please read some econimcs books, price is based around value, the FX market is just a derivitive of this value, by not lowering the exchange rate because they dont want it lower is causing an imbalance between the derivative and the true value, long story short the economy will collapse because there will be no true value. ALSO, say Bank of England didnt want to quote any lower prices of sterling, this is FX remember, when you buy one currecy you sell the other, say BoE doesnt offer lower priced sterling, this doesnt stop american banks buying the dollar, which pushes GBP down also. For a bank to fix a currency they would have to agree with every other country/bank/econmy in the world to fix theirs also, in fact even arguing this point is getting ridiculous now.
"Wait a second! How many times were data released revised? A lot. Plus do you really trust the gov't to release its info 100% complete and 100% true?
Eatin' ain't cheating. Remember the surplus during Clinton Administration?
All the surplus wasn't there (I read that somewhere. I need to check). "
Yes data is revised, but when they revise it we find out the same time as everyone else and the market corrects itself so IF the original number wasnt accurate because some country wanted to lie about its currency value, the market would rip it to pieces once the revision came out. The market is always finding fair value
"Why do the major banks (and brokers) have rates that are way too similiar to each other??? DO all the people in different brokerage house every second
do exactly the same trades? 24/5???? Can you imagine the possible arbitrage if banks showed vastly different rates? What keeps their rates similiar (perhaps the same if you take the broker spreads/cuts) ?"
You've answered your own question, arbitrage plays keep everything in line, all the banks are assessing their values against each other to keep it fair, if they start quoting different prices the banks lose because we would just play them off against each other, not to mention the fact the spreads we would pay would be about 50 pips wide.
"It seems that today with computer tech it all points that OUR orders do not drive. Not in the FX..."
Im sorry but i really dont see why you keep thinking this, our orders as in you and i dont move the market because we are too small, but people out there such as institutional traders, banks, exporters, etc etc do drive the market, for the same reasons we would if we had billion dollar accounts.