[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by tommyfx

Ok then, assume you set up a car lot, and buy a load of cars to sell, can you guarantee you will sell them for a profit?
Or you go into property development, do you KNOW what the housing market will do in a 18 months? Of course not, business is a gamble, we just use our skill and judgement to make accurate predictions. Making these accurate predictions is work, but there will always be an element of gamble, if you dont like risk try working as a bus driver or postman, most of us were initially drawn to trading because of the gains you can make, those gains come at a price, risk, but it isnt a gamble because there isnt an edge, (ok the broker has a spread) but that isnt a house edge as such, the markets can be traded profitably/cracked/however you want to put it, a casino cant.

Well in business there are higher ethical standarts than some brokers... You probably heard enough of problems with requotes, etc. Somewhere on this site there was a statement by someone whose highly successful trades were cancelled by Refco. I would like to see the relationship of requotes when you win big vs you loosing big....

Spreads are that edge that makes 50% accuracy rate UNWINABLE in the long run. Many systems when adjusted for spreads+commisions+slippage are much worse....

Because they look at the same charts as we do and make decisions on that.

Big banks have nothing better to do than to look at intraday charts and play equal with us?

Try to remember, NOBODY is bigger than FX,

Other than its organizers .

they look at the market as we do and make their decisions as we do,

And perhaps those banks who can, move the rates where they need them for maximum profit. Imagine if you could do that, wouldn't you? Imagine if some exporters phoned you and asked

"Tommy! We need you to lower quotes in few days. Could you please?"
"Sure. Wednesday after a brief rally up, I will lower the quotes."
Then you raise quotes by few 100 pips, sell billions of dollars and move the rates where your exporters need 'em. Of course during this time you have all the analytics saying how the price moved in accordance to some fundamentals, technicals, etc....

Again, the largest banks have their interests first. Not yours.

Banks make money from us trading through them, (remember spreads) if there was selling demand it would be in their interest to keep quoting prices to sell at and vice versa, by not showing us quotes they are turning away business.

The banks spreads are tiny compared to what most brokers give you. Knowing the greed that is part of our nature, why should they stop there? Furthermore
why should they sell when prices go up? How do they make money if their position turns against them? 1-10 pip spread doesn't cover it when prices move 100 pips against them!!!

Not to mention all the legal issues i and total impossibilities of this happening i stated in my last reply.

Who would stop them????!!!! Money rules politics...

The banks do stop currencies from falling by buying rather than just not showing lower prices for so many other reason,

Who makes the quotes tick on your screen? It is all electronic and this happens 1000s of times per day. WHAT STOPS THEM FROM REFUSING TO PUT QUOTES DAMAGING TO THEM?

i dont mean to sound patronising but please read some econimcs books, price is based around value,

Pardon me, I don't want to sound rude... But price in FX no longer seem to be based on value (atleast what we think).... What value of US dollar was in 9/11??? What value of dollar was during Katrina and other disasters? Why don't economists make the best traders? Financial world is based on money and power. Why should the banks allow the rates to float where WE want them to float? If it was so simple as following the news, watching PPI,CPI, etc then banks would loose big time as who would loose... Remember money doesn't grow on trees.

the FX market is just a derivitive of this value, by not lowering the exchange rate because they dont want it lower is causing an imbalance between the derivative and the true value, long story short the economy will collapse
because there will be no true value.

By giving the traders the ability to be able to move the currency allows it to drift God know where, which COULD cause financial collape.

ALSO, say Bank of England didnt want to quote any lower prices of sterling, this is FX remember, when you buy one currecy you sell the other, say BoE doesnt offer lower priced sterling, this doesnt stop american banks buying the dollar, which pushes GBP down also. For a bank to fix a currency they would have to agree with every other country/bank/econmy in the world to fix theirs also, in fact even arguing this point is getting ridiculous now.

When you lets say buy US dollars and sell lets say Euro. Are you really doing that? Do you realise how much it costs to transfer money between two countries and the amount of accounting paper work involved (especially today after 9/11)? And imagine how hard it would be to process 1000s of these orders per minute. Brokers being in for the money, would they go to these extremes?

arbitrage plays keep everything in line, all the banks are assessing their values against each other to keep it fair, if they start quoting different prices the banks lose because we would just play them off against each other, not to mention the fact the spreads we would pay would be about 50 pips wide.

But you have said that our supply/demand affects the rates. Now you are saying that they are "assessing their values against each other to keep it fair" , basicly keeping the rates similiar/identical to each other to avoid arbitrage.
I hope they aren't doing this manually....

Im sorry but i really dont see why you keep thinking this, our orders as in you and i dont move the market because we are too small, but people out there such as institutional traders, banks, exporters, etc etc do drive the market, for the same reasons we would if we had billion dollar accounts.

I am wondering if the order of that size could go through...