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Re: Forex as a system... Who benefits? What internal rules exist in FX?
"In my humble view the first question should be about the possibility of getting results better than 50/50 only THEN think about a strategy. I mean what good is it to spend 12 hours a day 7 days a week studying charts patterns fundamentals technicals if it all becomes for nothing???
If you have a system that performs (for real) better than 50/50 then it is no longer a gamble"
Trader ABC
For once i am in agreement with you. It is no longer a gamble if you have better than 50/50 odds. Getting a better than 50% accurate entry is not that hard if you stop trying to think the market is out to get you therefore try do everything against what experienced traders tell you to do.
How many times have you picked a trade made money on it? How many trades have you made it went in the money then ended up losing? I bet this is probably more than 50% depite the fact that it is totally crazy to think of the markets as a wild beast nobody can tame or predict the fact all the times you have called the market correctly (whether or not you actually made money on it) is greater than 50% shows you the evidence is there a good trader can predict the markets. For several years i have had about an 80% success strike rate is this a fluke? In fact i would say somebody just starting to trade will have about a 70% success rate if they were to take their profits when their position was holding its optimum value (hope this makes sense). Obviously you only know this with hindsight however the key to being a good trader is making a call which way the market will go (which is very straight forward if you open your eyes to the clues there) the VERY VERY hard part of trading the reason nearly everyone struggles to make money is knowing when your position has made the most amount of money it is likely to do. This is why maths cant predict the market because it is a combination of experience personal risk reward ratio that allow you to take the profits that are there at the correct time. Instead of working on entry systems which are largely a waste of time (as you correctly state) work on calculating risks
think:
"how much would this positon have to move against me before my reason for entry is negated?"
"what % of my capital will i risk on this trade" (this will vary on every trade depending on what your answer to the first question is.
"was my trade expecting a quick pull back or a sustained move a quick pullback therefore i will only look for a few point profit"
Trust me give up fiddling with indicators trying to crack the market just use simple well understood market rules to make your decisions then work tirelessly perfecting your risk management your answers to the above questions you will make money i guarantee it.
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