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Originally Posted by BullMarket
Currency is a commodity like oil, gold, coffee, etc. To say it’s completely random is like saying the price you’ll pay for your tank of gas next week is totally random. Or that tomorrow when you go to get your morning coffee that it’s price is NOT driven by the crop conditions, weather, supply or demand or any other forces. It has no bearing on any sort of condition it’s purely random.
Currency is the exactly same way. It responds to economic forces as Coffee dose to weather.
To say ANY market is random is completely naïve, and illogical.
-Frank
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I did not say that it doesn't have cause-effect relationships or higher level order. GOD DOESN'T PLAY DICE. The problem is that if the market is FAIR and if it responds to outside events, then you can't really beat it unless you can predict the events that will happen in the future. Until that you will have to work on your clairvoyance skills for trading!
For example that coffee/weather example. You can't predict if the weather next year will be good to make coffee go up, or bad to make it fall (or vice versa)... And if the market is fair, than there is no such thing as undervalued or overvalued stock, unless you are super quick scalper arbitraging with opportunities which usually lasts under 1-5 min....