You may enjoy reading this publication titled "Currency orders and exchange-rate dynamics: explaining the success of technical analysis"
1.
http://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/125.html
2.
http://trend.behaviouralfinance.net/Osle01.pdf
3. More:
http://trend.behaviouralfinance.net/
4. More:
http://www.technicalanalysis.org.uk/
Happy reading and profiteering
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Originally Posted by TraderABC
Hi all.
Are currency markets random or do they have a non-random element. If so how much? TA signals are rarely super profitable, and most of them are too similiar to each other. The fact that some traders make money is not a proof of market predictability. There are millions of traders, some of them may simply get lucky.
Clicking buttons is not laying bricks in -40 weather... Very often this or that "Guru" tells us about this or that secret method from Japan centuries ago or whatever... Well anyone can put their signal on a chart and find a chart that shows how the method works well and shows that the price is not random. It is unprofitable for people to sell their systems if market is random, plus it hits your pride knowing that your success was due to luck... Even if the market is predictable, ordinary people like us probably cannot workout the formula for prediction and those who know will not release it. If there is a 100% can't fail model of price action if enough people use it it fails....
Any way to statistically measure if the market is random or not? I've heard something about hurst measurements. Am I supposed to use O H L C or OHLC/4 ? How many candles should be there to form a statistical answer?
Thank you all. I hope that market is not random and people can make money there...
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