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Eur/Usd.....................
It appears after almost a week of G8 and Global Market reaction that the Eur/Usd is ready for some interesting movement. Price has remained in the 1.1533 high to 1.1416 low....Range from the 1.1359 9/21 Open.
Upside has begun to show signs of Apexing for a resumption of the Monthly Trend South.... this move North has shown a move from the 1.0940 break to the 1.1533 current High.....600 pips.
Interesting facet about this upmove.....on the Monthly frame...
the move has had velocity strength for the Rally...yet its sustainment has not followed through....the Long Term Trend is still down in Directional Price movement.....momentum/magnitude for a vigourous climb North is diminishing in this Trends phase of Accumulation/Distribution.
The Commercials have deepened their Bearish Euro/Bullish Usd
posture...........current Committment of Traders data....
Euro Commercial Positions.......
Date.......Long............Short...........Bullish ..........Open Interest
9/9 ...... 53,083 ....... 69,694 ......... 43% ............ 114,940
9/16 .....28,498 ........50,958 ......... 36% ............ 80,591
Usdx Commercial Positions.......
Date...... Long.............Short...........Bullish.......... .Open Interest
9/9 ....... 5,333 ......... 5,671 .......... 48% ............ 14,056
9/16 ..... 2,884 ......... 2,631 .......... 52% ............ 11,795
The Smart Money have increased their shift towards the downside on the Euro...while Large Speculators have a 62% Bullish bias/Small Speculators 64%.....Usdx is building Bullish sentiment....Large Specs at 52%..Small Specs at 40%...a sign of consolidation/reversal from the widening divergence in Position.
Upside move might not be totally done.....may see a final burst High for a retest of the 7/24/03 High at 1.1548 Daily...with a Falire Swing upside move at the 6/30/03 High of 1.1608 to nullify... short term... the move South. The 9/22 Low at 1.1416 is the launch point for a break South to test/break the 1.1100 basis....Higher positioining should be in context to the possible upside burst...this consolidation is breaking its boundaries with a move to the high end of the consolidation Range.... a nice fade .....with no strength.
Time the Trend.
Iris
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