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Re: Always go with the herd. Is that a bad or good idea?
Some people look at polls or they look at existing orders to see how many people are buying, selling or holding. The logic in this I suppose is that if there are more buyers waiting to get in the chances are that the price will go up. If there are more sellers waiting to get out, the chances are that prices will go down. In theory, this might work. The problem is that the opinions of all market participants change every second. Even though you think there are more buyers now, participants can and do constantly change their positions (long, short or flat).
Furthermore, operating in an uncentralised market like forex makes it very difficult, if not impossible for any organisation or broker to give traders an accurate number of how many buyers, sellers and holders there are in the world in any given moment since they only have access to the buy and sell orders made through their systems.
So in short, I do not think that this will work because we do not have a reliable source of information to base our decisions on and even if we did, what is true a second ago, will not necessarily hold true the next. Meaning, we might think that the bulls are the dominant heard, only to find out that by the time we join in, the bears have taken over and may even find that even some of the bulls have transformed into bears.
Last edited by JohnJay : 12-04-2006 at 03:47.
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