[WmWaster]

Originally Posted by desperate

Aleph - what you say is quite a common blief. And I've never known whether it's true or not actualy. From one hand - if a lot of people are buying (more buyers than seller) than price does go up. From the other - yes, still there has to be someone who sells...

That's not true.
It should be buying power is larger than the selling power. It may be many sellers but a few buyers. However these few (hidden) buyers keep buying and clear all selling orders all the way up, so the pricing being bid up.

Imagine the market is a weighed voting system. Only people who vote can affect the market. Every voter does not have equal voting in the market. More money means heavier votes. That's why you will hear one currency is still appreciating even most individual traders think it will be depreciating. Their votes won't count (heavily).

In Bull Stage 2, there's only 1 overall trend - rising. his is due to the fact smart money keeps feeding the market. If you try to guess the top and sell early, you have a higher percentage to lose. Whenever there's bad news, it either get ignored, or bring in short-term correction. But every piece of good news may be magnified and causes a big rise.

In Bull Stage 3, the smart money realises the prices have been risen too much. No one is going to support such unresonably high prices in the near future. Then they try to sell silently, bit by bit. At that time the prices seem to be in consolidation, coming up and down (but it may create a higher up and higher low in this consolidation). Individual traders get used to the "fact" that every falling is just correction. The late comers who believe the market will keep rising (forever) are willing to get their relay batons. As the smart money is gone, individual traders cannot support the market. The market is ready to collapse once there's bad news coming. The smart money is ready to crush the market.

WmWaster - you say there's a lot of traders etc. using automated systems. Well, I don't know any of them. I know some who are claimed to use them but that's all.

But you must realise that trading systems do exist. At least market makers still use trading systems to scalp/arbitrage. I know there's a fund in the past which has used its trading system well to gain loads of money for long years. However an unexpected misery happened which eliminate them on one occasion. That's why they now have risk managers which will monitor risks which cannot be calculated/counted in the trading system.

You may wish to contact waverider who is an automated trader

MACD? CCI? Man, these are the first I've tried. And the worse ones. Few spectacular gains and planty losses. Filter them? Yeah, that will kill many losers but some of winners as well unfortunately. Believe me - if I say I've tested them I mean it. And if I find or invent a new one which has any chanses of being profitable - I will test this one as well. But I know the result now without testing it

How about this?

When the market is in sideways, I found RSI works great (I set it to 9 for faster responses within a day). Try to trade at each of the turning point. Buy when it falls below 20/30 and it starts to turn up. Sell when it rises above 70/80 and it start to turns down. If you wish to be safe, set a tighter threshold.

When the market is in a upward/downward trend, just trade with the trend. It's just too easy to spot that you won't need any indicator to help. Depending on what trend you wish to determine (very-short-, short-, mid- or long-), you may use different timeframe to determine a trend. If you can't spot yourself, any trend indicator like moving averages may help. A upward trend is defined as a trend which you will see every relative high is higher than its previous, every relative low is lower than its previous.

If you are still dissatisifed, try this well-established simple yet powerful trading system which is available free, here's you are:
http://www.tradingblox.com/originalturtles/index.htm

It's a trend-following system which can reward you great.
However it's psychology draining. You need to train to accommodate your psychology to this trading system.

Long term trading?

Actually you may swing, positon, or long-term trade. You just can't daytrade if your full-time job occupies all your trading hours of the market. If, in case, you have 2 hours free to trade in your desired market, you may daytrade too. Also if you trade worldwide, there're always some markets open for you to trade.

Yeah, I think it's the only thing left for me but I'm really bad in it. I will catch every movement in it's local peak - I will sell [you mean buy, right?] the high or buy at low and the price will go in my direction for few days but I will still eventualy loose, because I won't exit in time :/

Umm... If you are going to be a long-term investor, how come you will sell so early and sell at low (or at a loss)? A long-term investor is to catch a promising stock, commodity or currency. They don't emphasise on catching at its relative bottom. You shouldn't be worried simply because you have been caught at the relative peak. As long as your purchaing price is still reasonable (ie below your estimated value), it's perfectly fine. You need to stop loss only if you found the product is no longer promising (ie major fundamental change).

By the way, if you are sure you are going to catch every local peak to buy high and sell low "miserably", you have found a workable trading method. Now what you need to do is to trade against it. When you wish to buy, sell! When you wish to sell, buy! Simple enough!