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Originally Posted by Summerset
Longterm, we hold our longs @ 3075, and will only bailout on a pullback to the neckline, after it gets successfully penetrated downward with an outburst of momkentum (Green bars -shown below on chart).
There will be ample time then to close the longs @ b/e on a pullback to the neckline. Else we would miss the chance of riding the longs on a breakout upwards from the multiple right shoulder(s), if they get to act as an inverted double top as happened previously with the left multiple shoulders. (See Chart attached).
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There will be a variation in trade mgt.
CHART-A:- Expect the 2nd right shoulder to form on 4hr taking price to 3140/50 max - close 3075 longs.
CHART-B:- The H&S on 4hr has formed a cute compact H&S on day, the fall of the right shoulder would take price to a measured target of 2900-2880 on 4hr chart. And to 2980 on daily chart. Recommend to Short 3145/55 to test such levels. SL @ 3195.
CHART-C:- Now comes the tricky part on the weekly. We don't expect the violation of the previous modul support upon which our bull flagmast is based. Instead we anticipate formation of an inverted H&S.
At exactly 3025/14 we recomend to long, with SL @ 2970. We will hold our long provided there is a reversal bar (4hr spike at the intraday breakout level). The longs are confirmed if there is a reversal daily bar.
Else we bailout on a retraction (there is a calculated risk of bailout failure of course) & prepare to re-long @ 2890. To cushion the risk, The Eurodollar longs can be hedged by Swissdollar longs too. - As an insurance policy.
Our longs would target breakout of gold neckline on CHART-C --> towards 3340.
Falling of price to 2890, negates the forecast inverted H&S formation, and turns it into an descending weekly triangle. This would have very bearish implications on Eurodollar.
And in our opinion is not sustained, as Asian central banks have been diversifying through accumilation @ such 2880 levels. Fundamentaly such accumilations would be distributed at 3340 & 3450 levels.
Trade Safe.