Once again Mishak, you raise a good point for discussion. I heared, read and discussed this issue many times, and my opinion stays as before...
Quote:
Well, what do you think about forex price movements ?
Are they random ?
Are they uniform ?
Are they predictable with chances better than 50% ?
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Ok, here is what I think:
Random - no, its not fair to talk like that. If it was random, we would have 50:50 chances. This is not the case.
Uniform - no, bcos in that case we would have accurate (and maybe even simple) knoladge of what we are dealing here with. This is much more than that. Market price movements are not uniform... but maybe this kind of description would be most suitable after all. I will try to explain what I mean:
I would call it uniform movements, but that form is not same one for all. For example, I have my own module/perception of market, and for me (as I see it and trade it), price movements uniform in the way I see it, so I try to trade based on that perception. I hope at least someone understands what I mean...
As for your last question about being predictable with chances better than 50%, I would say YES. I know some traders having more than 50% success. Even if we take my trading:
losing trades : 33%
profitable trades : 28%
breakeven (zero) trades : 39%
I move stops to breakeven after price moves in my direction 40 pips roughly speaking. It depends on currency pair and the way I see current situation. So generally speaking, all trades that are stopped in breakeven, moved in my direction after I entered the trade, they just didnt move to my target and got closed when they came back to my entry point. So if we take those trades as positive predictions, we get well over 50% of correctly predicted price movement. As you see, it depends on how we all see it.
Market is complicated and sometimes it gets unpleasant and tough, but its not that bad. It is difficult, but not such a catastrophe
Good Luck all, and thanks again for such a great discussions to Mishak and everyone who participates.
Rezo