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Meriam Webster
without definite aim, direction, rule, or method
lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern
relating to, having, or being elements or events with definite probability of occurrence
Cambridge
happening, done or chosen by chance rather than according to a plan:
Based on the above definitions of random...it appears that FOREX is RANDOM....
prices are not planned...they do not have definite aim, rule or method....they are a product of outside forces...supply..demand...interest rates..inflation...speculation..and many other forces....
So unlike the Chinese Yuan....FOREX is random......the Yuan is planned
no matter how much TA..Fundementals you do there are times that the prices goes against what you have predicted...you are therefore witnessing randomness....
aside from dice or coins...if you look at the weather it is random...however it can still be predicted with some reasonableness....
when a currency pair has certain characteristics that one follows we can say with X% probability that it will go up or go down....similar to the weather...when there are certain characteristics..humidity..jet stream....barometric pressure etc...the meteorologist can say that 60% of the times when conditions were similar to this in the PAST it rained...
but there is no guarantee and that is the randomness (other outside variables such as a large sale/purhcase...unexpected news...etc) these things can not be planned or predicted...therfore they are elements of randomness in the market...
But because the market reacts in certain measureable ways to events/variables and we can identify, capture and quantify these variables and events this is what makes FOREX statistically predictable with randomness......
Conclusion...its random but still predictable.....
dave
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