Great discussion!
Are prices random...I wouldn't say so. Unpredictable, over the long haul, maybe, but short term the chances of prediction increase.
The markets remind me of a game I once played at camp. We divided into 2 teams and tried to push a huge ball (about 5-6 feet high) into the opposite team's goal area (like football). The markets about as random as that. The direction of that ball is dependant on the current pressure exerted on that huge ball by 10-20 people. Each with different strengths, sizes and locations around the ball. Each with varying effects on the outcome. Sometimes one side gets the ball rolling fast and the other team has a hard time stopping it. Sometimes neither team could move it anywhere but sideways. Sometimes, you're just tired and you rest, gearing up for the next big push.
The markets are like that ball with people push on it, but without a goal that ends the push, and teams that are not persistant.
Enjoy the game!
