Hello Phillip...Niteflite...Everyone....
Niteflite... The
FX Market has two dynamics continually developing...
Economic/Monetary data via Time Fundamentals that are Priced into Technical Zones thus developing Directional moves...our current Central Bank posture is the BOE fully Priced in @ 6.00% and yet to be confirmed...the ECB @ 4.25% fully Priced in and yet to be confirmed...and the FED holding @ 5.25% with any further cuts null and void for 2007 for the Monetary outlook...we then have increasing Industrial strength for the latest US Economic data that we see currently being Priced in on this consolidation in the Swiss as Cable and Euro advanced based on the above premise of further tightening by the BOE and the ECB...which is requisite on this week and forward for each to release Economic data confirming their underlying strength
or a re-adjustment in Technical Pricing that has over appreciated the Sterling and Euro... I believe we are @ a Major Reversal in the USDollar and have Positioned accordingly and quite early...but non the less still anticipating a USD Rally as our Entry Zones in the Swiss have not been broken as the Euro and Cable Price in their Monetary Time Fundementals yet to be sustained by their Economic data...as we initially had Buy's in both that acheived excellent gains into our current Sell Positions which are in "deep water" but manegable.
We are Positioning a Major Reversal in the USDollar and thus a Rally and posted advance/decline Zones are preliminary objectives and not Exits as we build Position in these pairs until exaustion of the moves Wave begins to develop for which we Exit to re-Position...a correct assessment can be deduced in 2-4 weeks from Now and if the above Price Discovery is Priced into the Market over this Time as the Reversal builds momentum...or the USDollar weakens further.
My Strategy is a combination of Fundementals that are Technically Priced into the Market ...over Time...plain and simple...and we Position into these potential Price Discoveries for days into weeks and sometimes well before the Directional move occurs and @ other times we achieve Optimal Entries.
My underlying Positions and Analysis are on the USDollar to Rally based within the posted Swiss Zones...and unless this Price Discovery is violated significantly adding to Sell Positions in Cable and Euro will prove accurate in the Longer Term perspective over the next 30 days.
Quote:
We have reached a Major Low in the USDollar @ 1.1990<>1.2025 as the Sub-Prime downgrade from the S$P had USD Bulls Exiting to this Major Support. The FED has insisted that this aspect of the US Economy has its problems but should not have a major impact overall as US Industrial output has strengthened. Yet anything is possible in the Market.
We are @ a Major Low/Buy Zone for the USDollar in the Swiss...
Swiss Buy Zone @ 1.2000<>1.2025...with extension Buy's @ 1.1990
Target ...Open
Swiss Buy's @ 1.2005<>1.2008 and 1.2010 are activated...let's see if we can get additional Buy's below in the 1.2000<>1.1990 Zone.
Our Buy Entry Zone in the Swiss has been Open since the middle of last
week...Key North break @ 1.2040<>1.2080 to advance onto 1.2120<>1.2150 Zone...with extension Usd/Chf Buy's @ 1.1977<>1.1990 Zone
We are @ a Major USDollar Low in the Swiss as indicative of this Basing with improving US GDP/Industrial data with a FED containment on inflation...that's the facts...does the Market Buy or Sell...our Position is above and we are still waiting going into a 5th Day's Session.
The Swiss has consolidated our Buy Zone for 9 Daily Sessions to a current High @ 1.2052 as this USDollar Basing will be a pivotal Directional TURN for USDollar pairs off Multi-Year-Long Term Lows for the USD.
Same scenario ...advance break into the 1.2040<>1.2080 Zone to build an advance Support as we are out of the Entry Zone and building Position and a 1st Signal for this USDollar Bull to get into Directional shape.
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Our Swiss Buy Zone has been Positioned now for 2 weeks as a Major Directional move is about to unfold...my Position has been plain for 2 weeks on the Entry Zone...
Key advance Support build @ 1.2040<>1.2080 to get this USDollar Bull running with a current High from the Open @ 1.2054 off the Lows @ 1.1984.
IRIS
FX