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Re: TRADING FORK EXTREMES – 3 month Setups.
Hi Torsten,
Thank you for the compliments, yr always welcome.
The wave wave count, I am currently going by is attached below.
This is based on some wave segregation rules using momentum oscillators (CCi & ADx) in this case. I am actually studying this for some exam on 23rd April.
Some of these wave segregation rules are:-
1- Any wave(1) for any issue in any market & in all time frames, must be precceded by a CCi x Adx Gold cross below the +50 CCi levels. This is because a Wave-1 must mark the termination of a correction wether complex - extended - or simple.
2- Any extended impulse wave, must be sustained constantly above the +100 CCi level. Optimization for issues is possible, in the case of the attached Eurodollar weekly chart its +75
3- For Any extended correction to occur, prices must break the 2A line, and close below it.
The above rules are verified over a large # of issues, markets & time frames.
There are other cyclic rules, and rules cycliclly generated from a Rate of change of CCi & the CCi itself, that are however not verified yet, but sometimes give good entry cross signals.
In our case here (See Chart):-
1- A wave-1, is always generated by a CCi x ADx gold cross (RULE-1).
2- initally, I had anticipated a prolonged extended correction down to 1.40 levels, due to the usual rule of alteration between Waves 2&4 (II&IV, shown in red on the Chart).
This was a mistake, as its not always neccessarily the case. The market proved me wrong by confirming a wave-1 breakout, because of the current valid CCi x Adx Gold cross. (shown on Chart).
3- I therefore expect wave-1 target at ~ 1.53 (=1.618 of last corrective swing). This should be followed by a retraction to 61-78% of Wave-1, marking wave-2. And then an extended wave-3.
4- Fib elipses & spirals can be used to target the end of the wave-2 correction, and wave-3 extenstion. (Use Robert Fischer's book - Fibonnaci strategies for traders - he's German by the way). - I can paste U the url, on where to purchase the book & software if yr interested.
Spirals should be extremely acurate in this case because we have a clear ABC Flat correction to use. They are auto drawn by Fischer's charting software.
5- Note that as long as the CCi remains extended > 100 (75 in our current case), we have a prolonged oscillation in an impulse wave. It has become confirmed prolonged because of the current restart of a Wave-1 marked by any momentum gold cross while price is above its moving average. (i.e- running in trending levels = above 100 or 75 in the CCi).
Trully such an oscillation is becoming extremely over extended, and logically should make a deep correction sometime. But keep in mind that Now, due to outbreak of wave-1. The oscillatory cycle must make 5 impulse advaces, before making any meaningful 3 move correction (-Elliot). The advances may be muted at worst, but never the less will be made.
The current advances are being driven forward whenever speculative selling (because Eurodollar has broken above all time highs), out weights buying. The buying is trully dirven by the higher degree current bull secular TREND, because of Fundamentals.
This means that retractions can no longer be deep (so much as the CCi never closes below 75), & corrections / retractions in wave-2 will make a serries of complex flats or a complex elongated pattern at most. (triangles or their likes).
6-Its most important of course to be disciplined enough, & tightly observe the above 3 segregation & momentum rules during actual comitted entries, but on smaller intraday frames.
All the Very Best
__________________
Sincere Regards
Summerset
------------------------------------------------------There is no future in any job. The future lies in the man who holds the job.- George Lane. (Stochastics Developer).
Last edited by Summerset : 27-02-2008 at 15:22.
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