USD
Yesterday USD has been trading in the lateral range. The lack of significant news for two largest economies as well as the first trading day of the week, which in many countries is day off, has led to a strong decline in the volume of trades. Nevertheless, in general, this week will be very important for the whole foreign exchange market. After a strong decline of USD which lasted several weeks, it is expected technical correction which should determine the future levels of support for major currency pairs.
Among American data attention is drawn to the trade balance - Intl Trade Balance, which will be published at 15:30. Although the market is not very interested in data on balance, probably news in the short term will have some impact taken into account that the following interesting data from the USA will be published only on Friday.
Participation in the stock indexes shows that investors are hesitant to the American economy.
EUR
EUR/USD is being traded second day with a slight decline. It is likely that the price increase will be able to turn into a correction, which will provide opportunities for the opening of speculative long positions.
Technical analysis shows that the nearest significant level of support is in the area of 1.4930-1.4850 (50% of the growth and the closure of January). The intermediate support lies in 1.5190 (February closing), but in the case of a bear's mood, this level will be beaten.
Among European data the business expectations index - ZEW EMU and the assessment index of current economic conditions - ZEW EMU current conditions will be published today, however, these figures are not of the interest at the moment.
GBP
The British pound has completed the first trading day with decline against the American currency. The negative fundamental analysis data, which supported overpriced rate of pair, provoked a decline of GBP.
GBP/USD is currently located in the area of its maximums, and there is a high probability that the price at the moment is changing the growing trend sinker. We recommend opening short positions with a stop losses above 2.0450 and intermediate target in the region of 1.9870 (closing of the second three-year period). The next goal is located at 1.94. Then a strong level of support that could stop the decline, would be at 1.9175 (closure of the first three-year cycle).
Among the statistics it is recommended to draw attention to the Primary data on the growth of GDP - NIESR GDP Estimate
GOLD
After reaching the absolute maximums, gold is forming an intermediate level of support in the area of $ 960 per troy ounce. This level coincides with a rising trend line support, which gives it extra significance.
If the price can beat it, the ascending trend will be completed. The next support will be the mark of $ 940 per troy ounce (50% of the uptrend).
Otherwise, renewals of new absolute maximums are possible this week. Strategic level of resistance is still the mark of the $ 1000 per troy ounce, after reaching which many actors will close long positions causing significant instability of prices.
The source of information:
http://blog.poltekfx.com/?agent=24263