Thread: Trend trading
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Old 18-01-2004, 17:19   #2 (permalink)
Stringmine
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3 charts to consider:

Euro (March futures contract)

Chart #1a: The recent trend

Chart #1b: 13-01-04 produced a triple top intra-day, failure of support at 1.2708 and 1.2680, support then found at 1.2623 with a bounce back up to test previous support at 1.2680, a break up here and test of old support at 1.2708, followed by a failure to break out, back to support at 1.2623 leading to a down trend and clear channel forming. Based on this chart I would be buying at the lower channel trend line (or support - which ever came first) and selling at the upper channel trend line. However, with the main trend clearly defined (as down), it would be prudent to set a conservative stop loss below support if taking a long position on a break out of the channel and perhaps to reverse from the long side to short side if it fails to break back into the channel. Otherwise, a break back into the channel would provide a decent long opportunity (especially if taken at or near support) with a target of testing the underside of the upper channel trend line?

Chart #3: The British pound. It appears to be in ,much of the same shape as the Euro, with a clear channel that has broken to the downside.

Prima face, the charts don't look particularly good to the long side although personally, I would chance a long around here, near support with a target of the lower channel trend line, moving stops up to break even on a test of the trend line.

Short term, the euro and pound look bearish, medium term mixed but longer term - I think both are buys.

Last edited by Stringmine; 18-01-2004 at 17:21.
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