Just my 2 cents here - as I am reading this post and seeing how useful it is - like it a lot. and although we are off the topic, we got into something interesting here.
Robert, Pete, Cliff, everyone...
Well, from the start I would like to clear what is my point: I belive computers are stronger than people, despite lack of intuition and some other aspects. therefore, I belive automated system can and may be very well profitable but I still do not belive in fully automated trading. Although I dont know how to react to 100% statement. I do not recall who mentioned it, but being 100% correct is 100% impossible. I belive only in one 100%: deth is for 100% - everything else is questionable (maybe even deth is not 100%...). whenever I hear 100%, it makes me smile - its too strong of a statement.
it was mentioned that only few people like Kasparov can beat the computer; I say that soon, even he will be defeated. Why? because at the moment, even though processors can make 3.000,000,000 calculations per second, if we translate it into chess game, it can still calculate not more than 15-30 possible combinations of game to develope (I dont recall how many exactly), because each move has 100s or more of possible continuations of the game...so at any given moment, computer knows not as far as human due to experience and flexibility of human brain.
But even with this little possibilities of computer nowadays, there are still very few people that can beat it. Its a very big question, whether there will be a man that can beat computer when instead of 3Ghz we will have processors with 30ghz...
Without computer calulations, we wouldnt be able to see the indicators calculated automatically with change of every tick...
And one more thing about system and computers that was mentioned here: the inability to take into consideration the fundamental events. I think it is totally unnessesary. The basis of technical analysis is that there is no need in fundamentals, and that even those factors are already in the price action...
As for me personally - I am still against beliving in fully mechanical system, and even though my trading is based totally on technical analysis, I am trading on combination of my own judgments + the system. I would say my trading is more of discretionary and less systematical.
Why I dont belive in 100% mechanical? maybe because despite my young age I am still a conservative approach trader. Maybe I am afraid that its possible
I dont know, but I tend to agree with our Dear Pan that market is much more than chess. It is a live and breathing organism, which is represented my hundred, thousands and millions of traders, financial institutions, banks and so on...
I dont know,
just another 2c
Rezo