View Single Post
Old 26-01-2004, 18:11   #2 (permalink)
jsoft
level 3
 
jsoft's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 148
Rep Power: 0
jsoft is an unknown quantity at this point
Risk is not a perception, since perception is subjective.

Anyway, Monte Carlo simulation is one of most common ways to asses the risk. Based on the trading system parameters (i.e. ratios such as winners/losers, avr win/avr looser, leverage, etc.) one can simulate what it is going to be the end result. Basically simulation is run thousands of time and then results are analysed.

What I'm looking for when comparing 2 systems are risk of ruin, average profit and average drawdown. I can only add that risk management is the most important key in trading. I couldn't count traders who appeared to be successful for quite some time just to blow their accounts at the end.
jsoft is offline   Reply With Quote