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Originally posted by kuepper
Add in the fact that pit bosses only go after the successful card counters, and you can see that casinos actually LIKE to have "card counters" playing in their casinos. Granted teams like the MIT card counting group took some of the major casinos for a lot of money - these are few and far between. Casinos make out in the long run, else why would they continue an unprofitable business?
Perhaps system trading is the same. Many people think there is a ton of money to be made in system trading and try to create the Holy Grail. Most end up losing their money trying to decode the market. The ones who make money system trading are few and far between... but like the MIT group and other pioneers of card counting, they make a killing before being stopped.
You're right, just like card counters there are probably very few automated trading systems which are consistently profitable. Like card counters there are the serious system developers who know what they're doing, and then there's the 'fast buck' brigade who slap an EMA-cross robot together, throw in the brokers API and hope it works.
Can the Holy Grail be found? Oh yes, it exists and has been discovered by every consistently profitable trader out there. It's not a secret, the Holy Grail is public knowledge and in every FX book and on every FX website, but only a small percentage of people who trade FX are capable of the self-discipline required to follow it. Identifying profitable trades is fairly easy in itself, actually trading them is the problem for the majority. The Holy Grail isn't winning 100% of the time, or even 50% of the time, it's the discipline required to observe the rules of the game without faltering.
Imagine if the MIT group had marketed their system and sold it to every wannabe casino card player who was looking for fast cash, how long do you think it would take before the casinos shut them down to protect their business? The same can be said for brokers, they welcome automated systems that consistently lose, they tolerate systems that occasionaly win, but just like the casinos they could not afford to tolerate or ignore an automated system which was consistently profitable and being used by an ever increasing number of traders.
Why so many people lose in FX is beyond me, it's not rocket science.
Cheers
Pete
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