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Old 28-02-2004, 09:10   #8 (permalink)
novice
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I did the M1 numbers my self in another thread:

Quote:
Originally posted by novice


How to measure inflation? I don't think the CPI gives a good measure. A much better measure would be to look at the growth in money supply. For this I think M1 money is a better measure than M3.

Using Fed figures for M1 (link at bottom) in billions. Inflation = Change in M1 for one year/M1 ending last year

Inflation = (2003-10-01) 1286.947 - (2002-10-01) 1202.643/
(2002-10-01) 1202.643

= 84.304/1202.643

= 0.0700989

= 7%

Changes in M1 are not going to be a perfect measure of inflation but I feel that they give a better reading that current CPI measures.

Fed's own data on M1

http://www.neatideas.com/data/data/M1SL.htm
I really think any government figures have to be taken with a grain of salt. After all look at all the tricks they use to massage the unemployment numbers. This is the age of 'spin" and plausible deniability after all.

Changes in M1 would give a conservative measure of monetary inflation. Once fractional reserve banking takes effect any changes in M1 are going to be multiplied.

M1 is basically coins, notes and deposit accounts.
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