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I made the mistake at first of paying too much attention to the short term (e.g. data releases, speeches, openings etc). But I still like to keep an eye on them.
IMHO the trade data seems to be the key piece of data this week.
http://www.moneytec.com/forums/_showthread/_s-/_threadid-7404
May cause either a break up or down. The UK trade balance caused a big drop in cable already this week. So maybe the market is paying attention to the trade balance and the current account balance at the moment?
I don't think there will be any news to change the fundamental position of the USD. But maybe enough to temporarily change the perception of the market, at least enough to hit my stop loss (all I really care about)!
About entry points:
As my previous posts show I have wanted to buy all the way down in the current EUR/USD, AUD/USD etc decline. If I had been buying on dips I would have been caught many times. For this reason I prefer to enter a position on a breakout. Even if I am wrong I don't lose as long as the stop is not triggered. The profits are lower but I feel this is balanced out by having fewer losses from trying to pick the bottom of the market. Still have the problem of being caught in a trading range.
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