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Paul Koszarny · 16-02-2003, 18:25

EUR/USD fractal outlook

Last week’s fractal days were Monday and Friday. I had expected the market to show little reaction to Monday’s pivot 1.0812. Of the predicted range 1.0726-1.0865 the upper bound showed beautifully, whereas we had actually a lower low by about 100 pips from the forecasted range. Both Monday as well as Friday are daily highs in the model, so now the model suggests a break lower is possible from the region of recent highs 1.0865/42. The patterns of hourlies do not indicate a major reversal is yet at stake.
In the opening week the first daily resistance 1.0830-1.0801 is quite near major support 1.0776. The support line is gradually moving higher and from within the small triangular formation we should see a breakout in the course of this week with a new local extreme probably on Friday.
I would like to point to an almost half-a-week euro weakness and the last movement above 1.0812 seems to me a very false signal prompted by the operators who did not change the direction after the hourly multiple wave had been completed but instead carried the trade 50 pips higher. Again the movement down triggered many stop losses of those who believed a new rally was beginning. To a bewilderment of many the market gradually eased lower, touching 1.0758 which was 100 pips from the week’s high. My preference is range-bound trading with possibly much lower volatility than in the week behind. We begin with support 1.0776 and resistance 1.0830. The proposed averaging strategy proved useful and profitable. One could open a multiple number of new positions in both directions and exiting was easy and painless. My last position short at 1.0850 was a good topping to quite happy trading.

16-02-2003, 18:25	#1
Paul Koszarny Super Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 322 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0 Rep Power: 0	EUR/USD fractal outlook EUR/USD fractal outlook Last week’s fractal days were Monday and Friday. I had expected the market to show little reaction to Monday’s pivot 1.0812. Of the predicted range 1.0726-1.0865 the upper bound showed beautifully, whereas we had actually a lower low by about 100 pips from the forecasted range. Both Monday as well as Friday are daily highs in the model, so now the model suggests a break lower is possible from the region of recent highs 1.0865/42. The patterns of hourlies do not indicate a major reversal is yet at stake. In the opening week the first daily resistance 1.0830-1.0801 is quite near major support 1.0776. The support line is gradually moving higher and from within the small triangular formation we should see a breakout in the course of this week with a new local extreme probably on Friday. I would like to point to an almost half-a-week euro weakness and the last movement above 1.0812 seems to me a very false signal prompted by the operators who did not change the direction after the hourly multiple wave had been completed but instead carried the trade 50 pips higher. Again the movement down triggered many stop losses of those who believed a new rally was beginning. To a bewilderment of many the market gradually eased lower, touching 1.0758 which was 100 pips from the week’s high. My preference is range-bound trading with possibly much lower volatility than in the week behind. We begin with support 1.0776 and resistance 1.0830. The proposed averaging strategy proved useful and profitable. One could open a multiple number of new positions in both directions and exiting was easy and painless. My last position short at 1.0850 was a good topping to quite happy trading.