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One more thing, the big guys are just as clueless as to where price is going, as evidenced by the comments in today's AP news report below.
Associated Press
Dollar Weakens Against Rivals
Thursday August 19, 6:03 pm ET
NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar slipped against its major rivals Thursday, giving back some of the gains made earlier in the week in thin, uninspired trading.
In what has become a typically dull August for currency markets, the dollar continued to bump within ever tighter ranges, constricted by hesitation among traders to make significant bets on the course of the U.S. and global economies.
"Essentially the trading environment has become very repetitive: a few days of shallow gains, a few days in which people get squeezed out, but it's still well within the bigger ranges," said Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist at Investors Bank & Trust in Boston.
Economic data did little to inspire trading, despite the incremental bits of light they shed on the U.S. economy.
Currency traders were generally unfazed by figures showing that the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell by 3,000, dropping to a six-week low of 331,000. Trading was also unaffected by the Conference Board's index of leading indicators, which fell by 0.3 percent in July on the heels of a 0.1 percent decline in June, and the report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which showed that area manufacturers saw activity expand at a reduced pace in August.
Rather than react to the data, traders were said to be pushing back into trades that they had bailed out of just Wednesday when the dollar had crept higher against most rivals.
"The only real theme of the day is that guys are already starting to dip their toes back into trades that had gotten washed out yesterday" when the dollar staged a rally against the euro, Swiss franc and British pound, said Grant Wilson, senior trader at Mellon Bank.
In late trading on Thursday, the dollar was at 109.32 yen, down slightly from 109.34 a day earlier, while the euro rose to $1.2367 from $1.2324. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was fetching 1.2424, down from 1.2458. The dollar also fell against the Canadian dollar to 1.2968 from 1.3064 Wednesday. However, the pound fell to $1.8318 from $1.8495.
Currency markets again turned a blind eye to oil futures prices, which rose more than $1 as growing violence in Iraq threatened to bring that country's oil exports to a halt. At the New York Mercantile Exchange, benchmark crude futures soared $1.43 to settle at $48.70 a barrel.
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