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Paul Koszarny · 07-03-2003, 18:54

quote:My understanding is that we are predicting the "best probability" we can, of market movements. The market has a good or high probability of going the way we expect depending on how good our analysis was-unquote

I don't understand why you use 'probabilities' where each decision you make is based on facts, parameters, picture that never repeat themselves as an exact replica of the past experiences. I mean you deal with a situation when you've got a sample consisting of one element only. It reminds me of media statements 'the probability of rate cut by 25points is 70%'. Has anyone given Duisenberg one or two more tries in exactly the same economic conditions?

How can you predict probabilities?

07-03-2003, 18:54	#7 (permalink)
Paul Koszarny Super Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 322 Rep Power: 0	Probabilities on forex quote:My understanding is that we are predicting the "best probability" we can, of market movements. The market has a good or high probability of going the way we expect depending on how good our analysis was-unquote I don't understand why you use 'probabilities' where each decision you make is based on facts, parameters, picture that never repeat themselves as an exact replica of the past experiences. I mean you deal with a situation when you've got a sample consisting of one element only. It reminds me of media statements 'the probability of rate cut by 25points is 70%'. Has anyone given Duisenberg one or two more tries in exactly the same economic conditions? How can you predict probabilities?