Hey Jasper
You can ignore most of this. I think I misread/understood what you said. I think it was when you said long and said the market rose on Monday. I read that as long the cad. Of course, on the pair usd/cad, a rising market means a falling cad, just as predicted by futures data. Sorry for the confusion. Anyway, price action since then makes it look like we may have to wait a little longer!
I'm a bit confused now. Are you using the futures data to predict very short term action i.e hours to a few days or are you using them for longer term trends days to weeks.
I ask because when I look at the COT data on canadian, I see the commercials ( smart money) getting shorter and shorter and non commercials ( dumb money) getting longer and longer. When the differential gets to extreme, the commercials are usually correct.
I would thus use futures data to look for a chance to soon get long usd/cad i.e the opposite of your potential position.
Are you interpeting the data in a different way?
If so, I would be interested in knowing how you interpet it.
Thanks
DUFC
