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United 46
I don't think you can really use IMM ticks as a leading indicator for the spot market as the time lag is nowhere near enough (trust me, I've tried with a Reuters terminal and an EBS station and it's still not gonna work more than 1 time in 100 for the sort of trade you're talking about.)
S+P however does sometimes work pretty well, and for an exhorbitant fee you can even get a dial up line straight to the pit to get the price action live (big banks have this) but it hasn't worked any where near as well this year as it did a year or so ago. Just depends on what the market is looking at and at the moment geopolitics trumps equities.
But the one thing that you can do with IMM data (as has already been detailed in this post) is use the positioning data to skew your view on which side to trade from. The big players all look at this stuff and there are lots of stats out there. Some of the Custodian Banks also put out stats on their own clients' positioning (anonymous summaries only) as a proxy for the spot market in general. So they might for example say that their real money funds are net overweight EUR/JPy for example, but not which fund is doing what). for the big custodians thats a pretty reliable proxy for the real money portion of the market. but this kind of research is much harder to get hold of than the IMM stuff.
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