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I like to think of it as looking for the combination of event and positioning that wil hurt the most people. Pain always moves markets, and the greater the proportion of spec vs commercial activity in the mix, the greater the potential for pain. So look for situations where all the spec players are really long a certain currency and that currency suffers some adverse data. Then wait for the stops to start getting hit and watch them piggies squeal!!!! :-)
GJ
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