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Paul Koszarny · 23-03-2003, 19:11

EUR/USD fractal outlook

In the final episode of last week EUR/USD failed at 1.0668 to recover more and further selling pressure emerged amid frenzy buying on major stock exchanges. However, I would like to point to the fact that the beginning of the war has been largely and falsely taken for an ending and uncertainties cannot be declared perished yet. EUR/USD almost touched Friday support 1.0496 and despite positive divergences closed relatively low near 1.0525 with no signs of profit taking. These oversold conditions should keep us alert as on Monday we are entering the first model day with support 1.0516. It is possible that EUR/USD will be bought on dips below 1.0516 towards next support 1.0431, though a bounce off the present low would not be much of a surprise. Major resistance comes now at 1.0651 and for the time being this level is seen as the target of a possible correcting movement. The model suggests a week long trend and further losses towards 1.0258 maximum. Ideally a full week of declines, whether from a healthy retracement on Monday, or without it, should be the end of the first decline from 1.1083. I will be looking forward to buying opportunities early Monday.

23-03-2003, 19:11	#1 (permalink)
Paul Koszarny Super Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 322 Rep Power: 0	EUR/USD fractal outlook EUR/USD fractal outlook In the final episode of last week EUR/USD failed at 1.0668 to recover more and further selling pressure emerged amid frenzy buying on major stock exchanges. However, I would like to point to the fact that the beginning of the war has been largely and falsely taken for an ending and uncertainties cannot be declared perished yet. EUR/USD almost touched Friday support 1.0496 and despite positive divergences closed relatively low near 1.0525 with no signs of profit taking. These oversold conditions should keep us alert as on Monday we are entering the first model day with support 1.0516. It is possible that EUR/USD will be bought on dips below 1.0516 towards next support 1.0431, though a bounce off the present low would not be much of a surprise. Major resistance comes now at 1.0651 and for the time being this level is seen as the target of a possible correcting movement. The model suggests a week long trend and further losses towards 1.0258 maximum. Ideally a full week of declines, whether from a healthy retracement on Monday, or without it, should be the end of the first decline from 1.1083. I will be looking forward to buying opportunities early Monday.