CB
Nice work! My thoughts are:
1. As with many indicators, this may be a better indicator when commercial, large speculators positions are at extremes rather than each week.
2. In contradiction to point 1, I would never be too sure about using an indicator where the volume traded represents less than 3% of the overall market ( though it is increasing).
3. In contradiction to point 2, if you find that your getting positive returns just over 50% of the time, you've hit the jackpot. Keep those losers smaller than winners and you make money.
I think most people who look at/use cot data would confirm this is only as a small part of their systems and as a possible heads up.
Kind Regards..
UNited
