Thread: Sell Eur/Usd
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Old 29-10-2004, 12:14   #732 (permalink)
Iris
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Oil and the US Dollar.

Hello Bear....Good Question my Friend.....
Quote:
Am I wrong but wouldn't high oil prices effect everyone, Yes were the biggest consumer but it seems the dollar is really being jerked around by the oil news without a real fundamental basis for the recent price swings.
Crude Oil is priced in US Dollar's therefore USD's valuation thru a weak USD has exacerbated a growing Demand for the global consumption of Oil relative to Higher Inflationary levels thru strained producer capacity. With the emergence of China's increasing demand for Oil and other Commodities...the Supply line for Oil has been crimped...Oil producers no longer see that the Global demand for Oil is a theoretical but reality and thus Oil producers not positioning for this eventual outcome in demand...has strained the supply quota's of producers who maintained lower levels because of a weak USD...lower valuation=smaller profits. Now with a Bull Run in Oil...producers must increase output to contain the advance or add insult to injury...Bull Oil/Inflationary levels/Weak USD=profit implosion.

With Oil at Inflationary Central Bank levels...priced in US Dollar's...any Oil quota news +/- will impact the USD. When Supply quotas increase it is positive USD news and thus a Rally...continued Supply strains thru producer capacity will continue the Bull Oil advance and weak USD because of Inflationary concerns.

Oil into US Dollar's relative to the Supply/Demand equation will determine a Fundamental alignment based on Output vs. Demand in context to Inflation...for which Oil priced in USD will respond.
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