[Paul Koszarny]

There was little reaction to minor lows after 13:00CET which was the first model hour of today, however strong positive divergences on stochastics and RSI looked dangerous. So we tried first long at 1.0960 which was stopped three hours later due to a decline to 1.0930. However, positions opened at 1.0950 are safe enough. It would be untrue to say that I had expected a bounce of this strength and price action. It was triggered by quick profit taking on Wall Street. Just one glance at hourly candles on Dow Jones says everything. Dow looks solid enough to sustain the current levels but the dollar lost its lustre all across the board. Today's sharp reactions cannot be attributed to only thin volume and pre-weekend air. Dollar sellers had been waiting patiently until the last moment only then to crush wrongfooted investors. There cannot be any doubt that big names and big money stand behind today's movements. And it may not matter much that it's overdone and overbought as we are in an entirely new area for the rest of the week.