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Mongoose · 02-05-2003, 01:26

I would like all my trades to be winners, but I realise that the market cannot be predicted.

What I mean is that, it has a 50% chance of being a winner. It was just a lower risk than reward which is all I look for. I pay my money to spin the wheel. The only thing I can control is how much I am prepared to loose to play the game.

I have listened to HUNDREDS of predictors, and despite my most graceful courtesys, EVERY predictor I meet has always got ultra defensive or agressive regarding his/her methods and nobody can conclusively state that they make money, or that their calls were profitable over a large enough sample AND had an edge over random entry. Perhaps prediction gives the trader something to blame besides themselves, the way the sun shines on uranus was not taken into account for. There was an outlier event that reduced the significance of the event. Whatever. I suggest a good read of Trading In The Zone. Phsychological analysis is to technical analysis as technical analysis is to psychological analysis.

02-05-2003, 01:26	#3 (permalink)
Mongoose level 3 Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 116 Rep Power: 0	I would like all my trades to be winners, but I realise that the market cannot be predicted. What I mean is that, it has a 50% chance of being a winner. It was just a lower risk than reward which is all I look for. I pay my money to spin the wheel. The only thing I can control is how much I am prepared to loose to play the game. I have listened to HUNDREDS of predictors, and despite my most graceful courtesys, EVERY predictor I meet has always got ultra defensive or agressive regarding his/her methods and nobody can conclusively state that they make money, or that their calls were profitable over a large enough sample AND had an edge over random entry. Perhaps prediction gives the trader something to blame besides themselves, the way the sun shines on uranus was not taken into account for. There was an outlier event that reduced the significance of the event. Whatever. I suggest a good read of Trading In The Zone. Phsychological analysis is to technical analysis as technical analysis is to psychological analysis.