MoneyTec.com Traders Community Forum - View Single Post - Cable - GBP/USD

vudragon · 19-11-2004, 12:13

Hello there,

I have been posting a lot on the Cable forum on www.dailyfx.com
The interaction there has been slow of late, so I was hoping to get more intereaction over here..

Here are my recent posts over there on the current moves in cable:

As I expected, we could not get much past 8630ish until we got a retrace. ..though the retrace was a bit further than I thought, but not beyond what I considered critical for a continued northern move.

My longs @8542 was triggered. Still have a final long @8510 for a test that I now doubt gets triggered.

Cable bounced off of the Upwards TL created by the 8375, 8405, and 8439 Lows of the recent sessions.

I have shorts on a break of 8500 just in case.

Edit:
As long as cable does not break below 8480/70, then there is a good chance that it will target 8690ish on this next move up.

My final Long entry is @8490 (this was moved down from 8510).

Edit:
I also have an additional Long awaiting a northern breakout @8560.

Edit:
Cable just finished a Contracting/Symmetrical Triangle on its previous formation. It appears as if may now be doing the reverse--an Expanding Symmetrical Triangle Formation.

..if this has any validity, then 8481ish should be the completion of Wave b.

Wave A was 119pips, so Wave C should be approx a factor of 1.618, which gives me a target of 8691.

Hope I am not just seeing things...

Edit:
Final Long entry filled @8490 on this decent. Also have some Short Hedges that should be stopped out on a move past 8560.

Hope to see some of ya for the ride north!

Edit: 8525 (1pm)
The Expanding Symmetrical Triangle or perphaps Expanding Flat Correction is starting to look like it might have some validity since cable bounced off of 8479. The Hammer that it left behind on the hourly and 2hr charts look promising for a ride back up.

How I came up with it: (of course this was after it shot through my initial 8560 target)

Wave A was 119 pips and I projected Wave B to be a factor of 1.382 (164pips), which somehow came out exactly where it bounced off of ( 8643 - 164 = 8479 ). ..somehow I previously came out with 8481, but why split hairs...

Edit: 8517
This 8530 Resistance lvl has held up quite nicely today... once broken, I would expect it to become a fairly strong support if retested w/in 24hrs of the breaking.

Edit: 8501
Took profit on my Short hedges from 8625, @8595. ..since it seems to be having a hard time breaking thru a secondary TL. I will open new Short Hedges when it retests 8630. This will have very tight SL, prob 15-20pips.
***Bad Call!!!***

Edit: 8478
Eek.. Cable is desperately trying to break out of the Accending Triangle that I see on the 4hr chart. The Triangle starts at the low of 8305 on 11/5 and top of 8616 on 11/8. Simply connect the following lows and highs to see it.

The past few days saw Cable try to break out of the top of the Triangle unsuccessfully. ..I guess it is now returning the favor at the bottom of the Triangle. I imagine that a SL @ 8440/30 would be safe of a false breakout to the South Side. A false breakout to the south should not break under the line by more than approx 20pips, since this is what happened on the top end this morning.

Edit: 8510 (~10pm)
K all.. back from some playtime...
The bounce was expected and refreshing... I trade from 2 diff platforms and they give me diff prices.. GFT tells me that Wave A was 120pips and the move to 8460 (Wave B) was 166pips, hence Wave B was approx 1.383 X Wave A... tit for tat...

The bounce was the important thing here... at least conforting for me.

I still have not hedged since 8530 has not been tested... in my parrallel universe, it will be tested and I anticipate my Short hedge being stopped out! Since this is a very small SL, it will be inconsequential.

Cya @ 8690!

Cheers.

..BTW, I counted the little impluse waved down from the high.. and it looks complete to me.. look @30min chart for a better view of it.

Also, I am expecting either a large corrective wave set or small impulse wave set up to meet my 8690ish target..

The corrective wave set would be easier to calculate.. if so, then expect a correction @ about 8587 to perhaps 8542 prior to reaching the target.

8566 (6am Fri)

Can't say that I am not happy with the move up. Cable also started to retrace very close to my 8587 target (8590). This looks more like an impulse wave set developing to me though.. and it is prob in the middle of Wave 3, if so. ..it might not retrace to my 8542 target prior to assaulting the previous high. ..if it is an impulse set, then there is a good chance that Wave 4 will begin around the previous high.

..in any event, I have moved all my SL up to insure some profit.

Edit:
If we truly are in Wave 3, then I see it potentially completing at around 8620ish after a bit closer examination.

I will be taking out Short Hedges for hopefully scalping instead at these lvls, with tight SL of course.

Edit: 8605
My target of 8612 was hit and my Short Hedge/Scalp has been triggered. Also took some profit on some of my longs and will be re-adding after my anticipated retrace. There is a tight SL in case I am wrong and it heads directly to 8690. ..my remaining longs will easily cover the small loss if so. 8617 is my exact potential turnaround/retrace point to begin Wave 4.

Edit: 8670
Long Re-Entries just triggered @8672. Expecting Wave 4 to end soon... if I am not off on it of course..

Keeping my Short hedges from 8612 for a bit longer to make sure that cable doesn't want to drop below 8540/30.

Hope you all are making out well on this bumpy ride...

oh yeah.. moved my hedge/scalping short SL to BE.

Edit: 8540
May have re-entered Longs a tad early.
Just didn't want to miss out on Wave 5 I guess...
Lets hope this baby turns back around soon. ..then again, that's why I hedge a lot.
The hedge account doesn't look too shabby.. kinda want to take profit on it.. just need to be assured that 8530 does not break.. I provided good resistance yesterday..

8570

Am actually hoping it gets retested again now.. so I can have another Long entry with what would be a very tight SL, hence very low risk... wasn't really prepared or thinking on the first test of it. A break back above 8580ish may not see a retest of it though.

...And this huge Hammer on the hourly from the Rejection does not look good for a retest.. but I could be wrong...

__________________
When times seem to be at their worst and there's no one left to turn to, stick to your convictions! ..You only have a few pennies left to lose anyways!

19-11-2004, 12:13	#1 (permalink)
vudragon level 3 Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 258 Rep Power: 0	Cable - GBP/USD - EW / Projections Hello there, I have been posting a lot on the Cable forum on www.dailyfx.com The interaction there has been slow of late, so I was hoping to get more intereaction over here.. Here are my recent posts over there on the current moves in cable: As I expected, we could not get much past 8630ish until we got a retrace. ..though the retrace was a bit further than I thought, but not beyond what I considered critical for a continued northern move. My longs @8542 was triggered. Still have a final long @8510 for a test that I now doubt gets triggered. Cable bounced off of the Upwards TL created by the 8375, 8405, and 8439 Lows of the recent sessions. I have shorts on a break of 8500 just in case. Edit: As long as cable does not break below 8480/70, then there is a good chance that it will target 8690ish on this next move up. My final Long entry is @8490 (this was moved down from 8510). Edit: I also have an additional Long awaiting a northern breakout @8560. Edit: Cable just finished a Contracting/Symmetrical Triangle on its previous formation. It appears as if may now be doing the reverse--an Expanding Symmetrical Triangle Formation. ..if this has any validity, then 8481ish should be the completion of Wave b. Wave A was 119pips, so Wave C should be approx a factor of 1.618, which gives me a target of 8691. Hope I am not just seeing things... Edit: Final Long entry filled @8490 on this decent. Also have some Short Hedges that should be stopped out on a move past 8560. Hope to see some of ya for the ride north! Edit: 8525 (1pm) The Expanding Symmetrical Triangle or perphaps Expanding Flat Correction is starting to look like it might have some validity since cable bounced off of 8479. The Hammer that it left behind on the hourly and 2hr charts look promising for a ride back up. How I came up with it: (of course this was after it shot through my initial 8560 target) Wave A was 119 pips and I projected Wave B to be a factor of 1.382 (164pips), which somehow came out exactly where it bounced off of ( 8643 - 164 = 8479 ). ..somehow I previously came out with 8481, but why split hairs... Edit: 8517 This 8530 Resistance lvl has held up quite nicely today... once broken, I would expect it to become a fairly strong support if retested w/in 24hrs of the breaking. Edit: 8501 Took profit on my Short hedges from 8625, @8595. ..since it seems to be having a hard time breaking thru a secondary TL. I will open new Short Hedges when it retests 8630. This will have very tight SL, prob 15-20pips. *Bad Call!!!* Edit: 8478 Eek.. Cable is desperately trying to break out of the Accending Triangle that I see on the 4hr chart. The Triangle starts at the low of 8305 on 11/5 and top of 8616 on 11/8. Simply connect the following lows and highs to see it. The past few days saw Cable try to break out of the top of the Triangle unsuccessfully. ..I guess it is now returning the favor at the bottom of the Triangle. I imagine that a SL @ 8440/30 would be safe of a false breakout to the South Side. A false breakout to the south should not break under the line by more than approx 20pips, since this is what happened on the top end this morning. Edit: 8510 (~10pm) K all.. back from some playtime... The bounce was expected and refreshing... I trade from 2 diff platforms and they give me diff prices.. GFT tells me that Wave A was 120pips and the move to 8460 (Wave B) was 166pips, hence Wave B was approx 1.383 X Wave A... tit for tat... The bounce was the important thing here... at least conforting for me. I still have not hedged since 8530 has not been tested... in my parrallel universe, it will be tested and I anticipate my Short hedge being stopped out! Since this is a very small SL, it will be inconsequential. Cya @ 8690! Cheers. ..BTW, I counted the little impluse waved down from the high.. and it looks complete to me.. look @30min chart for a better view of it. Also, I am expecting either a large corrective wave set or small impulse wave set up to meet my 8690ish target.. The corrective wave set would be easier to calculate.. if so, then expect a correction @ about 8587 to perhaps 8542 prior to reaching the target. 8566 (6am Fri) Can't say that I am not happy with the move up. Cable also started to retrace very close to my 8587 target (8590). This looks more like an impulse wave set developing to me though.. and it is prob in the middle of Wave 3, if so. ..it might not retrace to my 8542 target prior to assaulting the previous high. ..if it is an impulse set, then there is a good chance that Wave 4 will begin around the previous high. ..in any event, I have moved all my SL up to insure some profit. Edit: If we truly are in Wave 3, then I see it potentially completing at around 8620ish after a bit closer examination. I will be taking out Short Hedges for hopefully scalping instead at these lvls, with tight SL of course. Edit: 8605 My target of 8612 was hit and my Short Hedge/Scalp has been triggered. Also took some profit on some of my longs and will be re-adding after my anticipated retrace. There is a tight SL in case I am wrong and it heads directly to 8690. ..my remaining longs will easily cover the small loss if so. 8617 is my exact potential turnaround/retrace point to begin Wave 4. Edit: 8670 Long Re-Entries just triggered @8672. Expecting Wave 4 to end soon... if I am not off on it of course.. Keeping my Short hedges from 8612 for a bit longer to make sure that cable doesn't want to drop below 8540/30. Hope you all are making out well on this bumpy ride... oh yeah.. moved my hedge/scalping short SL to BE. Edit: 8540 May have re-entered Longs a tad early. Just didn't want to miss out on Wave 5 I guess... Lets hope this baby turns back around soon. ..then again, that's why I hedge a lot. The hedge account doesn't look too shabby.. kinda want to take profit on it.. just need to be assured that 8530 does not break.. I provided good resistance yesterday.. 8570 Am actually hoping it gets retested again now.. so I can have another Long entry with what would be a very tight SL, hence very low risk... wasn't really prepared or thinking on the first test of it. A break back above 8580ish may not see a retest of it though. ...And this huge Hammer on the hourly from the Rejection does not look good for a retest.. but I could be wrong... __________________ When times seem to be at their worst and there's no one left to turn to, stick to your convictions! ..You only have a few pennies left to lose anyways!