Quote:
Originally posted by evolve
IF the (trade weighted) USD Index bounces from long term support @ 78-80, then I think we will see EURUSD @ 1.20-1.24 again.
Time frame?...hmm, hard to say... probably within the next 3-6 months.
Reasons:
1. interest rate differential likely to increasingly be USD favourable in the short-intermediate term
2. CB intervention?
3. EU economy not performing well enough, to justify current levels of EURUSD
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However, from a longer term perspective (2-4 yrs.), I think the USD is TOAST
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Yes, those are good reasons, thanks for replying.
As a trader sometimes it has been difficult to continue to analyze a trade / price move based on reality APART from one's own trade
direction.
But if you could, as if you were flat, and you would still be in your own direction, then you most likely are right even though the rate price as gone against you (temporarily).
As far as the USD being toast in the future... it may appear that way but you must keep in mind that there are other currencies for it to trade against. Those currencies are in pretty shabby condition themselves especially the EUR.
Strictly speaking, for the euro-zone to prosper, a rate of
under 1.0000 would need to be reached and maintained for quite a lengthy period of time.
Best regards.
jtb