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I would really appreciate the opinion of the experienced traders in this forum on the following. It seems reasonable to me all the way up to the last part, which seems unreasonable to me.

I would really like to know if my thinking is right or wrong and whether my expectations are reasonable in the real world of trading forex.

(1) Account balance = $50,000.
(2) Risk per trade = 2% of account balance = $1,000
(3) Pips risked per trade = 30
(4) Dollars risked per trade = $300 (assuming $10 per pip)
(5) Position size = $1,000/$300 = 3 standard lots.
(6) True leverage with 3 standard lots = $300,000 / $50,000 = 6:1
(7) 6:1 leverage is too high. 2:1 is preferred so only 1 standard lot
will be traded.
(8) Expected average weekly gain of 100 pips (IS THIS UNREASONABLE???)
(9) Expected average weekly gain of $1,000. ($10 x 100 pips)
(10) Annual profit is then $52,000.

Step 10 seems unreasonable to me since it is a greater than 100% annual rate of return. Most books and articles I've read state that the best professional money managers can only do between 25% and 40%.

How then can I expect a greater than 100% return. I'm confused because steps 1 - 9 seem to me to be reasonable and conservative.

Please, is trading forex really this profitable, or am I totally screwed up in my thinking?

Thanks in advance for your replies.