Quote:
Originally posted by eagleeye
JTB,
I've been reading your posts and we agree on most issues 80-90% of the time - scary thought no?
I thought I was the only euro bear out here but I guess i've got company. The only problem is the I've got to trade the charts I've been given.
In addition I keep reading all the major banks keep taling about Euro 1.35 in the 2nd quarter.
From a pure fundamental viewpoint I would surmise Euro falling.
From a pure technical viewpoint - using daily charts - I see Euro trapped inside a 1.3400-1.3200 channel (at least since early December)
From a personal viewpoint I understand why the US WANTS a lower USD. I also understand why the EU doesn't want a much higher Euro.
The COT charts which I've seen show me that the Big Dogs are lightening their USD shorts - but their perspective is way too long for me.
What's a trader to do?
Basically I'm waiting for 1.337 to short euro and 1.32 to buy it and play the channel - however given the current lack of "movement" or volatility I'll probably bag it after today.
What I find interesting is that looking at the charts and last year I remember that in December EVERYONE was talking about Euro 1.30 and 1.35 then WHAM it hit 1.29 and tanked only to make a double top in February then WHAM down to the 1.25 levels.
What has changed since then? Hmmmmm
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EE, I remember February very clearly. I think it is standard market noise for most big players and economists to point an arrow in the current direction and forecast another dime or two move months even years down the line in the same direction path.
Since it rarely happens they should disregarded.
This current rate (1.3300s) does represent a predicament for the usd and euro. And for many market participants as well.
I know a trader who claims he has successfully made tons of money trading both long and short eur/usd for the past 2 months.
I have encountered no such success, yet I have not gotten creamed. Probably a feat to some since I have been maintaining my short trade for over two months. I have sustained blistering losses.
What's a trader to do? I simply don't have the indicator capacities to open a long euro position. It has been this way since the 1.2500s where I focused exclusively on shorts. Imagine purposely missing 800 points in profits on the eur/usd climb!
Judging from the stabilization we've encountered for the past 3 weeks capping at 1.3470 I could advise to nail shorts as often as possible in the 1.3400s range. On the same token we've had good retracements (downward) in the 1.3300s.
Something I am sure of: We will see the rate go to 1.2800 before we see it break 1.3500.
One thing I know: I will not call this a massive directional change until we crash through 1.2500. Until then we probably have the potential for euro bulls to move the price back up to the 1.3400s at any time.
These last 11 weeks have been extremely hard and difficult work. A massive war of money slingers with many more casualties than winners on both sides.
Just for your info: The main reason I have remained shorting eur/usd and not opened a long position on euro is because my indicators still point towards doing so. At the same time, unfortunately, I see a very strong column (channel) in a 1 day chart that I would be happy to email you.
This channel indicates a very powerful move upward in the euro/usd rate. Notwithstanding, the euro-zone, asian-zone, CAD and AUD will probably disallow a further weakening of USD arresting it should euro bulls attempt to move the rate past 1.3500.
While a comforting thought I receive little comfort until this puppy goes down hard past 1.2500 - then I will start counting my cookies.