Overview
The dollar finally strengthened a little bit today, about half an hour after I closed my trades... The cyclical model has come off line and the strong bullish signal still remains basically unfulfilled. We continue to track the second VASR band in the upper range.
Both Regression models remain mixed and are nearly in neutral territory; this setup is seen quite often before a strong unpredictable (from a model perspective) move. We do see slightly bullish cycle building in the trend with a reversal off the bottom of the recent bear move.
Risk Metrics
The primary risk model is +100 but has slowed its accent and begun to turn slightly; this might be the cap for this cycle. Its high enough to warrant extra caution in the trade model. Volatility tomorrow should spike, but levels shouldn't match that of NFP... At these levels a strong whip also can't be ruled out.
Forecast
The forecast heading into the UK session is for continued strength in the dollar. A risk for reversal in on the horizon and given the volatility forecast in the risk model, it could come at any point. I'm sitting out the UK session and will reevaluate at the front of the US session.
Trade Calls:
EUR/USD: no trade
USD/JPY: no trade
GBP/USD: no trade
USD/CHF: no trade
