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10-31-04, 04:07 PM
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| Trading during Presidential Elections What are the thoughts on how the upcoming presidential elections will affect trading this week. I've heard it said to stay away from the markets Monday and Tuesday as it may well be either volatile or flat, or both. Although a trader of many years experience said to me that the last election, where there was also much indecision, didn't seem to be really affected at all. |
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10-31-04, 05:50 PM
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| Re: Trading during Presidential Elections Quote:
I can't see it affecting the dollar that much unless Kerry pulls a rabbit out of the hat, then I think we'll see the dollar take a hammering......thinking about it I guess the dollar's gonna get hammered either way  From a trading perspective I doubt the markets will be much different than usual, perhaps the occasional spike here and there.... Mick           |
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10-31-04, 06:32 PM
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| This may be of interest.... Dollar Stretched Thin as Elections Near Homestretch by Ashraf Laidi REMINDER: US EASTERN TIME (NEW YORK) IS NOW 5 HOURS BEHIND GMT Financial markets will closely the follow the micro developments of the US presidential elections, theoretically due to be decided in the early morning hours of Wednesday. But the closely contended race between President Bush and Senator Kerry may not be decided by the end of the week or even this month. Election observers agree that the presence of hundreds of lawyers, advocacy groups and staunch willingness by both political parties to challenge the result of a potential defeat would delay the final outcome for weeks, if not months. Market Uncertainty, Bin Laden and Jobs Surging election uncertainty and protracted delays shall only translate to capital rushing to US treasuries and gold at the expense of the US stocks and the dollar. The course of oil prices remains uncertain, especially after China’s decision to raise rates appeared to have placed a cap on prices. The weekly inventory data have shown unexpected build ups over the last 2 weeks. Further accumulation should be negative for oil, positive for the dollar but not especially so for the USDJPY rate. The $430 target on oil and $84.50 floor on the US dollar index shall be key gauges of deteriorating confidence in the markets. The 3.98% yield mark on the 10-year treasury and the 8-year low of 1.1850 in USDCHF are also crucial risk benchmarks. See more on futures speculators below. Friday’s broadcasting of Osama Bin Laden’s address on Arabic TV station al-Jazeera accusing President George W Bush of deceiving the American people in the years following the September 2001 attacks has been widely interpreted as a positive for president Bush’ s reelection bid since it reminds the public of Al Qaeda’s presence, thereby inducing voters to opt for Bush’s war-against terror. A minority of observers see the tape as beneficial for Kerry on the basis of the Administration’s failure to catch Bin Laden. Aside from the election effect, markets will see an array of economic data, namely manufacturing PMI surveys from the US, Western Europe, Canada and Japan. More importantly is Friday’s release of US October jobs report once again expected to show a figure of about 160-175K. |
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10-31-04, 07:55 PM
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| Rainstorm I had a look back to the year 2000 on my daily charts and saw the following for 7th November (which was election day that year I believe ). GBP had a range of 1.4236 to 1.4360. Euro had a range of 0.8573 to 0.8666 Yen had a range of 106.90 to 107.48 CHF had a range of 1.7598 to 1.7735 You might recall that the result in the election was not known for some time after that, so I had a look to see what the high and the low were until the end of the year 2000 following the election. GBP low was 1.3954 and the high was 1.4980 (which was on 28th December ). Euro low was 0.8370 and the high was O.9425 (which was on 29th Dec) Yen low was 106.90 and the high was 115.05 (which was on 29th Dec) CHF high was 1.8174 and the low was 1.6100 (which was on 29th Dec ). Regards Last edited by foroz; 11-01-04 at 02:18 AM. |
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10-31-04, 11:02 PM
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| The election is most likely going to be contested by lawyers. This confusion is going to be US Dollar bearish in the short term after the election. Once (and if?) a decision is reached the uncertainty is going to go out of the market this would most likely be US Dollar bullish (buy the rumour and sell the fact and all that). Once this effect goes then the market may well focus on US Dollar fundamentals as there is not other distraction. This will be US Dollar bearish. |
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11-01-04, 03:04 AM
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| Quote:
I guess we'll soon find out! Mick |
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11-01-04, 04:35 PM
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| Thanks everyone who responded to my dilemna about whether to trade or not before the elections. I don't think I will as trading is rather thin. But that's not to say you can't make good money scalping - it seems to be a good market for that on the GBP at any rate. But currently may be somewhat unpredictable being the eve of the election.... Thanks Foroz for all that historical data re: trading circa election time. My understanding is that we shall have a reasonable idea of what's what re: the elections by 12:00GMP the earliest. So my hypothesis is: there should be a breakout by Wednesday European session and trading thereafter should be back to relatively "normal" given the pent-up energy of uncertainty. Friday non-farm payrolls should be worth a bit too... Am I right guys? |
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