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[MickMason]

Originally posted by imgunn


Try telling that to Dunn, Henry, Seykota etc

Nah, what do they know, eh

Some quotes from the book:

"Trend followers generate phenomenal returns because their decisions are ultimately based on one piece of core information: price."
"We are trend followers, not trend generators. At the beginning or end of a major trend, we may provide a little bump or a minor goose, but it will be an extremely superficial temporary effect."
"The strategy of buy and hold is bad. Hold for what? A key of successful traders is their ability to leverage investments."
"Obviously you can't know what happens before it happens. Maybe the rate cut is the start of a major trend, and maybe it's OK to go in after. That's our approach -- no bias short or long."
"Trend following hasn't changed, even though a single trend follower has."

[James]

Originally posted by currencia
Jajajja,...

Why do you keep on saying that? It's rather peculiar.

Lets not argue either Currencia, but trend following does have enormous merit, despite your protestations. It is not a case of one person having all the answers. Far from it. Some of your recent calls demonstrate that. "Too bad, how sad, your dad"? Of course! Every strategy has winners and losers, including yours. Lets respect each other's styles and abilities, without being condescending. There is nothing worse than being lectured at daily by a know-it all.

[theposer]

I trade part time but its my full time income. Bit of advice for someone who is looking for inspiration and is sick to death of the utter waffle and tosh that come out of the mouths of these pessimestic traders who say garbage like things such as 'it takes a unique person to make a profit in this game' and twits that say 'i've been trading for 2 years and i'm barely profitable, you need alot of experience and training to do this' My background is horse racing and i was and still can be very profitable at that game, my methodology was all about probabilities, odds, percentages etc if you apply this to the forex the bigger picture is:

YOU HAVE A 50/50 CHANCE OF MAKING A PROFIT EACH DAY since the currency pairs will either finish higher or lower at the end of each day you could in theory just toss a coin.

NOW combine this with a stop loss of say something like 35 pips your chances of making a profit over the course of time are gigantic because the a currency pair will finish maybe 70-80 pips (on average) ahead or below where it started at the beginning of the session and sometimes as we all know it can even run 200 odd pips in a session, but you can never lose this much because of your stop loss.

Now i'm not saying to just toss a coin and hope for the best all i'm saying is REMEMBER THE BIGGER PICTURE at the end of each session it can only finish 2 ways up or down you just have to guess right which you cant every time but hey you just need to have a better than 50% guess rate and you will profit overall or simply include a stop loss and it dont matter if you havent got a guess rate of 50% because the profit/reward ratio will be about 2 or 3 to 1.

IGNORE THE MISERABLE ONES they wont help you because they cant see the BIGGER PICTURE

[Makedon]

I trade for investmeI trade for investment purposes only, although I'm looking at expanding that to day-trading for a living, but not as yet.

theposer, I too am familiar with horse racing form analysis and probability theory and I'd like to question the notion that the market has a 50% chance of going up or down at the beginning of the day. This is like saying every horse in a 10 horse field has 10% chance of winning, when clearly they do not. One horse, the favourite, may have a 40% chance of winning and the next favoured horse a 20% chance of winning, horse 3 a 10% and the remaining 7 have a combined probability of 30%. You can only make a profit if you back one or more of the horses if they pay more than their probability warrants - $2.50, $5 and $10 for the first 3 in the above example and then of course you run the risk of one of the other 7 winning.

Going back to the market. It may be that the probability of it going up today is 80%, 70% tomorrow and 50% the next day. It's not a 50/50 event or at least I don't think so. In fact, all you can do here and the same with horse racing, is give an estimate of p - the probability of winning, based on some quantative methodology.

It's not like a coin toss, roulette spin or dice toss where p is known, for all intents and purposes anyway.

[tim_nn]

Originally posted by theposer

YOU HAVE A 50/50 CHANCE OF MAKING A PROFIT EACH DAY since the currency pairs will either finish higher or lower at the end of each day you could in theory just toss a coin.

That theory has been completely laid to rest by Larry Williams (among many others) in his recent book. It simply ain't so. Ultimately, it's the same as saying that I have a 50% chance of winning the jackpot in the National Lottery on Saturday because there are two possible outcomes: either I win it or I don't. (Might help to buy a ticket some time, mind you, but that's another matter ...).

[currencia]

Originally posted by James


Why do you keep on saying that? It's rather peculiar.

Lets not argue either Currencia, but trend following does have enormous merit, despite your protestations. It is not a case of one person having all the answers. Far from it. Some of your recent calls demonstrate that. "Too bad, how sad, your dad"? Of course! Every strategy has winners and losers, including yours. Lets respect each other's styles and abilities, without being condescending. There is nothing worse than being lectured at daily by a know-it all.

There is an old joke about the kid that goes off to college, but promptly writes home to dad after a few weeks. The note is short and sweet: " Dear dad: No mon, no fun, your son"

Dad promptly writes back with similar short and sweet note: "Too bad, so sad, your dad". It simply is saying that I take my stop losses if they get hit with a grain of salt; it is part of the game to have losing trades and it is simply time to get on with the next trade without the notion that one has to be right or wrong.

Take a few spanish lessons there James and you would know what jajajaj is.

I am just a student of the market. I dont sell trade calling services to others or try to manage others funds like you James. So, for you to be accusing someone else of being a know it all is rather pathetic.

No one has but a few of the answers. You shouldn't be pickin on the idea that my recent calls demonstrate losers. The profits they show run circles around your professional record. You have an ego that just won't quit. It is exactly what gets you in trouble when you trade. I posted a few trades. They made money and you want to pick shit with them. I called them blow by blow. Something that you have not done. Try it sometime before ya shoot off your mouth with negativity whilst you profess to be the master of congeniality.

I continue to learn something about the psychology of the trader almost every day by listening to you. Keep up the good work.

So, now you do have a protestation from da monkey. Buzz off.

[4xis2ez]

The profits they show run circles around your professional record.

Currencia, PROVE IT!

Your recent trading is the same as what you lectured James on several months ago. You now have a unidirectional bias on the short side in eur/usd all the while it is trending mildly higher, while several months ago you chastised James for being that way. I don't doubt your a sucessful trader but as a person you leave much to be desired. Your reply above to James is totally uncalled for. Your the type of person forums such as this hate to have.

[4xis2ez]

Currencia,
I know you won't prove your trading ability by posting all your trades live for the next few months. Your too scared someone might do better than you. Anyway, because I no longer value any of your posts and I don't want to hear any of your rants.

CURRENCIA=IGNORE LIST.

[bobnat]

Originally posted by 4xis2ez
Currencia,
I know you won't prove your trading ability by posting all your trades live for the next few months. Your too scared someone might do better than you. Anyway, because I no longer value any of your posts and I don't want to hear any of your rants.

CURRENCIA=IGNORE LIST.

Ah, I forgot about that function, thanks for reminding me.

Currencia, you may be a wise trader, but you're not a wise man. You're arrogant, conceited, and tactless.

Ta ta

Nat

[theposer]

Makedon wrote:

"I trade for investmeI trade for investment purposes only, although I'm looking at expanding that to day-trading for a living, but not as yet.

theposer, I too am familiar with horse racing form analysis and probability theory and I'd like to question the notion that the market has a 50% chance of going up or down at the beginning of the day. This is like saying every horse in a 10 horse field has 10% chance of winning, when clearly they do not. One horse, the favourite, may have a 40% chance of winning and the next favoured horse a 20% chance of winning, horse 3 a 10% and the remaining 7 have a combined probability of 30%. You can only make a profit if you back one or more of the horses if they pay more than their probability warrants - $2.50, $5 and $10 for the first 3 in the above example and then of course you run the risk of one of the other 7 winning.

Going back to the market. It may be that the probability of it going up today is 80%, 70% tomorrow and 50% the next day. It's not a 50/50 event or at least I don't think so. In fact, all you can do here and the same with horse racing, is give an estimate of p - the probability of winning, based on some quantative methodology.

It's not like a coin toss, roulette spin or dice toss where p is known, for all intents and purposes anyway."

GOOD GOD MAN you spent 5 minutes of your life writing that political tosh filled waffle.

First of all you have presumed that i 'back' horses which i dont i lay them secondly when you implied i likened currency trading to a coin toss or roulette you were incorrect i used the coin toss as there can only be 2 out comes just as there is on a currency pair UP OR DOWN not 'a 10 horse race' where you assign a probability factor to each one as you said.

The only other thing i will add is that because you are who you are you have taken the wrong message from my analogy of the coin toss and before you ask no i will not explain how you were suppose to have read it, however if you wish to go head to head on horse racing then keep talking.

To tim_nn who wrote

"That theory has been completely laid to rest by Larry Williams (among many others) in his recent book. It simply ain't so. Ultimately, it's the same as saying that I have a 50% chance of winning the jackpot in the National Lottery on Saturday because there are two possible outcomes: either I win it or I don't. (Might help to buy a ticket some time, mind you, but that's another matter ...). "

So because 'larry williams' has said it is wrong then that is it is it?? IF LARRY WILLIAMS TOLD YOU TO WITHDRAW ALL YOUR MONEY OUT OF YOUR BANK ACCOUNT AND SET FIRE TO IT WOULD YOU?

The statement you made about buying a lottery ticket and that you have a 50/50 chance of winning the jackpot is the biggest load crap i have ever heard however my wife did chuckle...........you do realize that with the lottery there is the small problem of correctly matching up several numbers to win anything do you??


"remember the bigger picture"

[nzbryant]

Currencia offers a lot of value to this forum - and I have read all his posts. He knows something about trading.

If you all cant handle a little direct blunt communication and honesty go live in New york for a little while and grow up.

[4xis2ez]

Originally posted by nzbryant
Currencia offers a lot of value to this forum - and I have read all his posts. He knows something about trading.

If you all cant handle a little direct blunt communication and honesty go live in New york for a little while and grow up.

Currencia is the one acting like a child who had his toy taken away. A real man is kind with others, polite, helpful. The way Currencia speaks is as a weak man who cannot handle the fact that others may do better than he does. If your idea of a real man is tough talk, then I feel sorry for you. James made some, as you put it "blunt direct communication" towards Currencia. And Currencia responds with harsh words about how he does better than anyone else. Currencia is the one who can't handle "blunt communication". This is a sign of a person who needs help.

[James]

Originally posted by currencia


I am just a student of the market. I dont sell trade calling services to others or try to manage others funds like you James. So, for you to be accusing someone else of being a know it all is rather pathetic.

No one has but a few of the answers. You shouldn't be pickin on the idea that my recent calls demonstrate losers. The profits they show run circles around your professional record. You have an ego that just won't quit. It is exactly what gets you in trouble when you trade. I posted a few trades. They made money and you want to pick shit with them. I called them blow by blow. Something that you have not done. Try it sometime before ya shoot off your mouth with negativity whilst you profess to be the master of congeniality.

I continue to learn something about the psychology of the trader almost every day by listening to you. Keep up the good work.

So, now you do have a protestation from da monkey. Buzz off.

Currencia, I'm afraid 4x1s2ez and Bobnat are right. Your attitude on this forum is all that they say it is. I do not doubt you have a trading ability, but there are many others here as well who have an equal, if not better, ability. I haven't seen anything from you to become a Currencia worshiper, that's for sure. From the beginning, you have had a constant urge to put everyone down and show yourself in a better light. That is what eventually got you chased out of the other forum you used to frequent.

For example, what caught my attention on this thread was your ridiculing of the poll result showing 65% of respondents were full time traders. What is your point? Are you trying to say everyone is lying? ....That they could not possibly be trading for a living?.... That they are not as good as you and therefore useless? Anyone reading your posts carefully will note that a large percentage of them are aimed at devaluing either people (such as your last one), trading ideas or people's comments on the market. There is no room here for people who cannot value other contributions or people who cannot see ow't but their own glory.

I am sorry if you feel the need to respond to me with swearing and calling names. Perhaps I have touched a soft spot.

I have followed your posts with interest and have tried to ignore your attitude, but now I too must place you on ignore to preserve my rationale and manners! It's a pity because you had one or two valuable contributions. Nothing I can't live without though.

Have a good life, wherever you are and whoever you may be

[MickMason]

What's this, talking back at Currencia

If you ask me I think the guy is just a rude arrogant bigoted fool, but then I'm sure he must have some good points, they're just not that easy to spot.

Ah well, it takes all sorts I guess.....

Mick

[dwt1020]

Originally posted by MickMason


No surprise that I take a completely opposite view!

I believe the trend is your friend, in fact it's about your only friend, there's absolutely no mileage in bucking the trend just to be different, there's strength in numbers, what do you think moves markets? 90% lose, not because they don't want to be different and have sheep mentality, they lose because their egos cannot take a loss. They hang onto losing trades like their life depended on them, yet they grab the first profit from a winning trade because it's such a rarity and they don't want to let it slip away, that's the main reason the majority lose in the long run. After that, the next worst sins are overleverage and desperation.

Winning traders don't have any superhuman quality, they simply know how to assess and limit risk and look for comparable reward. Trading is not rocket science!

Mick

Mick ... You are so right about this.. Just like a drug addict who can't stop taking drugs.. I can't seem to stop "NOT hanging onto winners".. I can't tell you how many times I move my s/l to above break even swearing I'm gonna ride this one out, only to close it with a much smaller gain than had I waited... It's a sicknes... and not pretty...

Good Luck Trading..

d